Sunday 11 January 2015

Half Time Report: European Round-Up

Having mainly focused on the Premier League in my blog, it can almost seem like I don't acknowledge the existence of any other leagues! However, while the English leagues continue on through the winter, many of the main European leagues take a nice break for Christmas. This makes it easy for me to do a succinct, but hopefully useful, roundup of some of the key leagues around the continent, looking at the title battle, the challenge for the European places and the threat of relegation.

Spain
Title
After last year's shocking finale which saw Atletico Madrid usurp the Clasico pair to claim the title, the first time that neither Barcelona or Real Madrid had claimed the title since Valencia's win a decade previously, it's been an interesting opening five months to this year.

Unsurprisingly, given the money spent by both Barcelona and Real Madrid, the pair have returned to the summit so far this season, with Madrid leading the Catalans by a single point with a game in hand. However, the reigning champions have refused to give up, with Atletico just a point behind their neighbours, albeit having played two games more. They may be on the back foot this year, but they seem intent on challenging once more.

Europe
It's all the usual suspects once more, with Sevilla currently in the Champions League spot and Valencia and Villarreal occupying the Europa League places. The only shock is the sudden demise of Athletic Bilbao. Having beaten Sevilla to the final Champions League place last year, Los Leones find themselves only 12th so far this year, and are unlikely to be in the shake-up come the end of the season.

Relegation
Realistically, anywhere from 13th down could be considered to be included in the relegation scrap, with Getafe separated from bottom side Cordoba by just six points. At the minute, Elche and Grenada join Cordoba in the relegation zone, with Levante and David Moyes's Real Sociedad, after an appalling start to the season, clinging on above them. I'm sensing numerous changes in the second half of the season as teams jostle for position, and a run of two or three straight victories may see them out of danger.

Germany
Title
Arguably the most one-sided league in Europe. Following a few years of competition involving Borussia Dortmund, with even a title for Wolfsburg, Bayern Munich have made the Bundesliga title their own in recent years. With the Bavarian side currently unbeaten this year, drawing just three games and conceding only four goals, they lead second-placed Wolfsburg by an unassailable 11 points. It's now more a case of when and not if.

Europe
The real race is for second place, with Wolfsburg separated from 9th place Eintracht Frankfurt by as many points as from Bayern the other way. In reality, the Wolves look strong favourites to cement a place in the Champions League. Other than them, the race is incredibly tight, with 3rd to 8th separated by just four points. With their pedigree, you'd always fancy Bayer Leverkusen to make the top four, but any one of Schalke, Borussia Monchengladbach, Augsburg, Hoffenheim or Hannover could sneak into the final spot, with two of the remaining four being entered into the Europa League.

Relegation
Here is where the biggest shock in Europe lies. Despite having won a pair of titles less than five years ago, Borussia Dortmund find themselves in the relegation zone. With players like Mats Hummels and Marco Reus, there is no way they should remain in this predicament, however, their away form abysmal at present, there is no guarantee that they won't get sucked in. Other than that, any of the bottom half of the table could find themselves in trouble come the end of the year, with Werder Bremen, currently in the relegation playoff spot, separated from 10th placed Paderborn by just two points. This is going to be another tight battle.

France
Title
Despite all of the pre-season talk of a Paris-Saint Germain procession with the demise of Monaco, it hasn't gone entirely according to plan for Raymond Blanc's side. Trailing Marseille by three points, and Lyon by two, the likes of Zlatan Ibrahimovic and Edinson Cavani have yet to reach the highs that we saw last year. Though I do expect them to eventually triumph, Marseille have performed exceptionally well this season, with Pierre Andre Gignac and Florian Thavin singled out for particular praise. 

Europe
With Monaco slightly off the pace of the top teams, the four top places are likely to be the three currently challenging for the title and Saint Etienne, though the order is yet to be conclusively decided. The way the form table is going, I would predict a top four of PSG, Marseille, Lyon and Saint Etienne, but there is still much to be decided.

Relegation
As with a number of Europe's top leagues, this is set to be the largest battle this season. With Caen currently being cut away slightly at the bottom, trailing 17th place Metz by four points already, the difference between Evian in 18th and Nice in 11th is just three. The biggest surprise of the bottom half is European regulars Lille. Despite qualifying for this season's Europa League, Les Dogues have struggled in the league, currently languishing in 18th place. Though I suspect they have more than enough quality to drag themselves away from trouble, it is still a worrying time for their supporters, and put themselves under considerable pressure for the remainder of the season.

Italy
Title
Not quite as sewn up as Germany, but Juventus should be considered the strong favourites. Though they may only lead by three points from Roma, they have shown that they have the experience and ability to convert a lead to championships. If Juventus don't win it, I don't see anyone other than Roma claiming the Scudetto, though.

Europe
Behind the leading pair, a gap of nine points goes back to a trio of teams, and with only a further three points back to 8th place, this is set to be the biggest battle we see this season. Lazio currently occupy the final Champions League place, but with considerable European experience behind them in Napoli, Sampdoria, Genoa, Milan and Fiorentina, I expect to see many twists and turns in this battle going forward. 

Relegation
Surprisingly, this seems to be the only league where relegation is a little more cut and dried. With Parma and Cesena on just six and nine points respectively, they look dead and buried. The only real dispute is over the final spot, currently occupied by Cagliari. With a number of teams congregated on 17 points, five clear of the drop, I'm expecting to see a couple sucked into the struggle come the end of the year.

While it's been an interesting season in the Premier League, we're seeing all of Europe's leagues have prizes being hotly contested. Though in some, the largest honour is not really being contested, there are interesting dynamics being played out across Europe. With a long time to go in the season, there is still much to be decided, particularly involving the qualification for European competition next year.

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