Thursday 1 January 2015

Half Time Report: Surprise Packages and the Return of an Old Nemesis?

In a series I'm going to call my Half Time Report, I'll look at the key trends we've seen so far this season, both in England and abroad. Let's start with the Premier League. Suffice it to say, it's been an interesting first half of the season. As predicted at the beginning, champions Manchester City and Jose Mourinho's rebuilt Chelsea are heavily involved in the race for the title, while both the Champions League places and the fight to avoid the drop are bitterly and closely contested. So, in the opening 19 games, what have been the key trends we have witnessed? What will we remember the first half of the 2014/15 season for?

A pair of surprise packages
Over recent years, we often see a team defy all the odds to fly up the table in the first half of the season - Wigan did it, Hull did it and even City did it once upon a time. However, never do I recall seeing two teams far exceed expectations. However, following the mass exodus at Southampton, they were expected to struggle considerably, with some even tipping them for relegation. But Ronald Koeman, like Mauricio Pochettino, and even Nigel Adkins before him, has taken the Saints far beyond the level expected of them. A number of exceptional signings, including Dusan Tadic and Graziano Pelle, had forced Southampton to the brink of the title race, before a dip in form leaves them JUST fourth at the end of 2014!

However, they are not the season's only surprise package. And, in my mind, West Ham's sudden incline in league positions is a far bigger surprise. Southampton have been incredibly impressive, but they have an almost entirely new squad. As I witnessed with Manchester City's incredible revival under Sven Goran Eriksson, the element of surprise can work in your favour for a while. However, to add just a handful of names to a safe mid-table side and fire yourself up the table is exceptional, and that is exactly what Sam Allardyce has produced at the Hammers. Both Enner Valencia and Diafra Sakho look to be inspirational signings, while the huge improvement in form of Andy Carroll and Stuart Downing has been great to watch. Though I'm not sure I agree that their target should now be the top 4, it has been an incredible start to the season for the East London club, and they will be hoping they can continue that momentum for the remainder.

A surprising leniency for managers (until recently...)
Now, I may well just be so used to the revolving door policy at most football clubs today, but surely there's normally been about five managerial casualties by now? The fact that two (maybe three if you count Pardew seemingly about to switch to the vacant job at Palace) managers have only left their posts within the last week or so is surprising to me. However, I'm not going to be suggesting we are seeing a change in attitudes around football clubs - it's normally the case that once one leaves it's a mass exodus, which I expect around February time!

Nevertheless, the lack of constant conspiracy and rumour is only a good thing when it comes to football managers, as it only tends to distract from the most important thing: the game itself.

It's like no-one wants the final Champions League spot
At the beginning of the season, I had the battle for the top four down to any two of Arsenal, Everton, Liverpool, Manchester United and Tottenham. However, only one of these sides has had any consistency this season, with each of the other four having inexplicable results and severe downturns in form. Liverpool, following the form that saw them run Manchester City to the final day of the season for the title last year, have struggled to replace Luis Suarez's goals (although his disruptive presence in the dressing room is more than taken care of by Mario Balotelli!). Arsenal have been incredibly unfortunate with injuries, but have looked susceptible at the back, and have relied too heavily on Alexis Sanchez to either score or create a game-changing moment.

Everton and Spurs have both had the same problem - consistently inconsistent. Though Spurs have been getting continuously better throughout the season, they started appallingly - particularly at White Hart Lane. Similarly, Everton have had real dark spells, but their form has seemingly slipped from an initially reasonable beginning. The form players from last year like Lukaku and Barkley have yet to click into top gear, and as a result, the team has failed to hit the same heights.

With the arrival of West Ham and Southampton into the mix for the European spots this year, the battle for the prestigious 4th place promises to be an incredibly closely contested affair, and I wouldn't be the slightest bit surprised if the race went to the final day - perhaps between more than two sides!

The Return of the Sith
However, I have to finish with a Star Wars analogy. Following a year in the wilderness, taking time to rebuild and come back stronger, a new dark red force is emerging in the Premier League. Though not yet as strong as we have once seen them, they are threatening to return to their full potential in the near future. For those of you that didn't understand that, I am of course talking about Manchester United. Under the guidance of Louis van Gaal, the Red Devils started appallingly, registering their lowest Premier League tally of points for the opening 10 games. However, since then the club has gone on a run of nine Premier League games unbeaten (although some may argue slightly fortuitously against the likes of Southampton and Arsenal), pushing them back not only into the top four race, but on the cusp of the title chase.

However, I will suggest this, and it's something that football fans are notoriously bad at - don't run before you can walk. Be glad with where you are - 3rd place would represent an excellent season for van Gaal after the Moyes debacle last year. Having seemingly spent their way back into Europe's elite  for next year, it seems only a matter of time before United are back challenging for major honours. Until that moment, the rest of the Premier League can continue to watch their back four perform like Bambi on ice at times!

It's been an interesting opening half to the Premier League season, but with a number of interesting dynamics set to play out over the busy New Year period and beyond, 2015 should be an incredibly interesting time for Premier League football.

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