Saturday 7 March 2015

One Man Team: How Much Of A Miss Was Aguero?

We all remember these words: 'Balotelli... Aguerooooooooooooo!' Martin Tyler's commentary of the famous final day of the 2011/2012 season has been immortalised over the last few years, but it's the goalscorer who wrote himself into City folklore. Since joining from Atletico Madrid for a club record £38m in July 2011, Aguero has been an integral cog in the City machine. The record Premier League goalscorer, eclipsing his countryman Carlos Tevez, Aguero has scored an impressive 69 goals in 110 City games.

As a result, I have to admit, as soon as I saw Sergio Aguero hit the deck in the third minute of City's game with Everton in December, I feared for the Blues' season. Such has been the form the little Argentine has been in this season, he had carried them through the tough spots, most notably in Europe.

This has led to so many pundits calling City a one-man team. However, we have seen numerous examples - perhaps more than in recent seasons - of numerous clubs seeming overly reliant on one player. With Aguero back to full fitness, was this the case with City, and is it any worse than any of their competition?

Before I look at statistics, it is important to consider the form of Man City during Aguero's injury. In the seven games including the one he departed early against Everton, City were unbeaten, winning six. Even more impressively, City scored 12 goals without a recognised striker, conceding just three. That seems to indicate that although Aguero has been a key player for City, carrying them through certain games, he is not the be all and end all.

But let's look at the stats, shall we? Interestingly, as I showed before, City have performed exceptionally well as a team since the Argentine has been unavailable. This form is certainly far superior from anything seen while Aguero was playing, averaging 2.6 points per game in the league without him while only managing 2.0 points per game with him. This certainly doesn't support the notion of a one-man team, though the return of David Silva from injury certainly will have helped City's cause.

On a more individual level, as a striker, Aguero's primary role is to score goals. Certainly, he has been the most in-form Premier League striker this season, rivalled only for this role by Diego Costa's excellent start to the year and Harry Kane's storming mid-season. But has he been so dominant in the Manchester City scoring stakes that suggests he has an abnormal amount of influence going forward?

Up to 6 December, the day Aguero was injured, Manchester City had scored 29 Premier League goals. Of those, the little Argentine had scored 14 - almost half. On top of this, Aguero also contributed to over 50 per cent of City's Champions League goals, dragging them through what appeared to be an impossible task in their group.

While that seems like a significant proportion of goals for an individual to score, it's worth looking at whether it is unusual, either for Manchester City, or the whole of the Premier League. Last year, Yaya Toure's 20 Premier League goals represented just 19.6 per cent of the total, though with injury denying Aguero for most of last season, this is perhaps not the most representative. In City's first title-winning season, Aguero scored just a quarter of their goals in the league, almost half of his current contribution this season.

But are City's rivals any better? Below is a table with the top Premier League goalscorers of each team, and their contributions in percentage to the total scoring charts:

Arsenal: Alexis Sanchez - 13/52 (25%)
Aston Villa: Christian Benteke - 4/15 (27%)
Burnley: Danny Ings - 9/24 (38%)
Chelsea: Diego Costa - 17/53 (32%)
Crystal Palace: Mile Jedinak and Dwight Gayle - 5/30 (17%)
Everton: Romelu Lukaku - 7/28 (25%)
Hull: Nikica Jelavic - 8/25 (32%)
Leicester: Leonardo Ulloa - 7/22 (32%)
Liverpool: Steven Gerrard and Raheem Sterling - 6/38 (16%)
Manchester City: Sergio Aguero - 17/59 (29%)
Manchester United: Wayne Rooney and Robin van Persie - 10/45 (22%)
Newcastle United: Papiss Cisse - 11/32 (34%)
Queens Park Rangers: Charlie Austin - 15/27 (55%)
Southampton: Graziano Pelle - 8/33 (24%)
Stoke City: Mame Biram Diouf, Jonathan Walters and Peter Crouch - 7/33 (21%)
Sunderland: Steven Fletcher and Adam Johnson - 4/22 (18%)
Swansea City: Wilfried Bony - 9/32 (28%)
Tottenham Hotspur: Harry Kane - 14/43 (33%)
West Bromwich Albion: Saido Berahino - 12/23 (52%)
West Ham United: Diafra Sakho - 9/36 (25%)

As you can see, based on the statistics, Manchester City actually rank eighth in terms of 'one-men teams' for scoring, with both Chelsea and Tottenham higher on that list. However, it is surprising to see that Arsenal not higher on that scale, as Alexis Sanchez has been seen as the leading light in their season. However, with Charlie Austin and Saido Berahino most prominent in the 'one-man team' stakes, perhaps, because the emphasis is not placed as heavily on the mid-table to relegation threatened teams, they are not placed under the same level of scrutiny as those higher up?

Clearly, Sergio Aguero has been Manchester City's most important player this season - even more so than some of their rivals - but there is certainly credence in the claims that this season has seen an increasing number of clubs relying on an individual to perform. While we have seen Arsenal and Chelsea discussed in the media, the likes of Leicester, West Brom and QPR have all seen players carry their seasons. Maybe Aguero isn't the only one-man teamer around, but he certainly is the most high profile. When fully fit and in form, he is arguably in the top five players in the world. I only wished he stayed fit for longer.

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