In the build-up to Tuesday's do-or-die fixture at home to Poland, I have been running an England mini-series, looking at the talking points that have haunted the England side's preparations, and looking at their chances going forward. A few weeks ago, I gave my opinion on Greg Dyke's comments that England should be looking to reach the semi-finals of the Euro 2020 competition, and win the World Cup in 2022 in Qatar. This assumes that the groundwork is already in place for England to become a viable winner of trophies, as Spain's 'Golden Age' really began a decade or so previously, with the change of several rules regarding training of youngsters. Using the State of the Game report, as well as evidence from the current England squad and the lower leagues, I will examine just how much creedence can be given to Dyke's claims. I dismissed them a few weeks ago-was I wrong to?
After a year and a half of relentless qualification matches, England find themselves on the brink of getting to yet another major tournament. After a morale boosting victory against Montenegro on Friday (the review of which can be found here), only Poland stand between our country and a place in Brazil next year. Whilst few (including the majority of the FA) expect us to achieve any real success in Rio, the plans above indicate that victory is expected in the coming decades. Having seen 'The State of the Game' report, this final post of my six-part England series considers the future of English football, asking whether the majority of our next few tournaments' teams will be found from the top teams, or if the lower leagues could be the place where we will begin finding the next generation of our national team.
Bearing in mind the target for an England victory is the Qatar World Cup in 2022, I wonder just how many of our current crop of players will still be around come that competition. Given that this World Cup is nearly a decade away, it is quite obvious that only players under the age of 25 currently will realistically have any chance of playing in Qatar. This obviously rules out the older members of our current squad, with the likes of Lampard, Gerrard and Cole more likely to retire within the next five years. More surprising is the amount of players that we will not realistically have at our disposal in ten years. If we take the cut-off point as being 25, with anyone older than that unlikely to travel to the Middle East, I will now list the ages and players that will not be there.
31-Phil Jagielka, Jermain Defoe, Joleon Lescott
30-Ben Foster
29-Glen Johnson
28-Leighton Baines, Ashley Young
27-Wayne Rooney, Gary Cahill, James Milner
26-Joe Hart, Aaron Lennon
As you can see, the vast majority of this group are first-team players, all of which will be missed massively, and all of which will need to be replaced. Arguably the only first team players that will remain, having discarded these, are Kyle Walker (23), Andros Townsend (21), Phil Jones (21), Jack Wilshere (21), Tom Cleverley (23), Theo Walcott (24), Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain (20), Daniel Sturridge (24) and Danny Welbeck (22). Whilst these are all good players, it leaves a considerable hole in the English team. Who could we possibly replace our outgoing stars with?
As I discussed in my last post, 'The State of the Game' report has shown that only 32% of the minutes played in the Premier League were played by Englishmen, compared to Spaniards making up 59% in their home country, and Germans making up 50%. This certainly leaves us at a disadvantage when it comes to producing young, bright talent. However, are there any talented youngsters currently breaking into the top flight that we could potentially earmark at this early stage? Andros Townsend is certainly one of these, as he has proven himself to be worth more to Spurs than £30 Million man Erik Lamela in the early part of the season, earning himself his first England call up for the match on Friday. However, even he would be turning 30 as the 2022 tournament kicked off. Perhaps the best thing to is to look at the younger age-groups in English national football. Looking at the U-21s and U-19s, I have produced perhaps 7 names that may be of England fans for the future, that will all be towards the peak of their careers come 2022.
Southampton's James Ward-Prowse, a product of the Saints' excellent youth system, is only 18, and has already been playing semi-regular football in the Premier League. With a handful of appearances this season already, I see no reason why the youngster cannot kick on and challenge for an England place in the near future. Ravel Morrison, once of Manchester United, and now plying his trade for West Ham is another. A name that recently has been hyped up, and one that Sir Alex Ferguson even tipped for stardom. At 20, he has perhaps taken a little while longer to develop than initially expected, but if he maintains the form that he has shown at the beginning of this season, I see no reason why the central midfielder couldn't push Jack Wilshere all the way for a starting place in Qatar. The same applies to Wilfried Zaha. The recent Manchester United signing burst onto the international scene earlier this year, with a single cap to his name. He has perhaps become another casualty of the 'bigger club', where competition for places stunts the growth of young talents. Nevertheless, he still has plenty of time to prove himself, and oust Theo Walcott from his position. He will be competing with two more exciting wingers, however. Liverpool's Raheem Sterling, who had such a fantastic season for the Merseyside club last year, and Norwich's Nathan Redmond, who looks every inch a great winger this season, will also be vying for starting places. Ross Barkley ends the wealth of talented midfielders that England are cultivating, as the 19 year-old Evertonian has shown just how good a player he is over the last two seasons at Goodison Park, and I would not be surprised to see him get a cap in the near future. Finally, up-front, West Brom's Saido Berahino looks a positive prospect. Having scored a stunning finish at Old Trafford, the youngster has been scoring bagfuls in the League Cup, and he could be another to make the jump to international level. I have purposefully left out Adnan Januzaj, as I personally do not believe that the United winger should choose to represent England, having lived elsewhere and formed bonds with another country for the majority of his life.
As we can see, midfield seems to be an area that England have covered for the Qatar World Cup. Up-front, Saido Berahino can add to the likes of Daniel Sturridge, Danny Welbeck and even Andy Carroll, if he forces his way back into the fold. However, based purely on Premier League youngsters, the squad is perilously thin on goalkeepers and defenders. Can promising players from the lower leagues solve this?
Quite simply, no. There are perhaps only four names of players plying their trades in the Championship or below that may make it into the England squad any time in the near future. Though he technically is owned by Stoke, Jack Butland has played the vast majority of his career at Championship level, currently playing for Barnsley. He is an excellent goalkeeper, but one that has not quite reached his true potential as yet. The same could not be said for Tom Ince. The 21-year-old is lighting up the Championship at the minute, and has already been the subject of a bid from Liverpool. I fully expect to see him in and around the England squad within the next few years. Similarly, Will Hughes is another exceptional prospect. The 18-year-old Derby County man has had to fend off interest from the two Manchester clubs and Chelsea to keep playing regular football, and I suspect that he is a real talent for the future. The final name is Danny Ings. Though not consistent enough to really merit significant hype, the Burnley man has had his best season so far, scoring goals for fun in England's second tier. It will be the step up to the Premier League that decides whether he will be international class, or if he will go the same way as David Nugent.
From this analysis, it looks as though the lower leagues actually have a smaller role to play in the shaping of English talent than the Premier League. This would be a concern if it were true, but I think it is not. If we look at many of the names that have just been discussed, along with the names that will still be around the England squad in 2022, we see a significant amount of lower league involvement in their progress. Looking at the names in the current squad, Kyle Walker spent time at Sheffield United, Tom Cleverley had spells at Watford and Leicester, both Alex Oxlade Chamberlain and Theo Walcott began their careers at Southampton, Danny Welbeck had a brief stay at Preston and Andros Townsend played at 8 different football league clubs! The Football League, then, has contributed to many of our current internationals. But what about those for the future? Have they all come from Premier League youth academies?
The future prospects also show signs of Football League involvement. Of those mentioned above, only James Ward-Prowse and Raheem Sterling have been brought up entirely by Premier League clubs, playing only in the top division. Ravel Morrison had a season-long loan at Birmingham, whilst Nathan Redmond began his career there, leaving only this summer. Saido Berahino spent time on loan at Northampton Town, whilst Ross Barkley also went out on loan to Leeds and Sheffield Wednesday. Wilfried Zaha spent almost the entirety of his fledgling career at Crystal Palace, helping them to the Premier League in 2013. So what role do the lower leagues play in the development of the England squad? The fact that the 'State of the Game' report indicates that the Championship's English players make up 70.5% of the minutes played in the second tier last season, up 7% on 2007/8, tells us that the Championship is rapidly becoming a cauldron for young, British talent. This is especially true when you consider the amount of loan signings that we can see from Premier League clubs to Football League ones. This means that the Football League, and the Championship in particular, will be a significant contributor to any England side of the future.
Can the lower leagues help England win the 2022 World Cup? In my opinion, unless Barnet or someone help discover the new Lionel Messi or Cristiano Ronaldo, I doubt it. We need a complete change of our grassroots system, and a much more nurturing attitude to our young English players. The loan system is valuable, but we need plenty of young English players, like Barkley and Wilshere playing regularly in the Premier League. Should we overhaul the system, we can win the 2022 World Cup. However, I feel that we are still some way from an overhaul, and therefore, still some way from ending our near-50 year hoodoo.
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