The FA's Response: Changing Attitudes?

It's almost like the FA read my last blog post on England. As I made my recommendation to start blooding the younger generation of English players, in order to maintain a more consistent approach in the future, the English governing body made its point. Greg Dyke, who has been a strong proponent of introducing further English quotas, has outlined his plan for the future of not only the Premier League, but the English national side.

If you want to read the full proposal, look here, but I'll just give you the highlights. The headline suggestion is that instead of the eight players currently required to be "home-grown", there will need to be 12, meaning that by 2020, the Premier League will be made up of a minimum 45 per cent of English players. There is also a change to the definition of "home-grown". Rather than the three years that a player must have been registered with the club before his 21st birthday, Dyke wants the three years to have been served before a player's 18th, ensuring that young talent continues to be nurtured by English clubs, instead of simply buying it in. Finally, he included a new requirement that two of these "home-grown' players must have been trained by their current club, meaning that all clubs have to place emphasis on their youth programmes.

So, should this come into operation today, how would this affect the current squads? Having looked at the sides registered by our top flight clubs after the September transfer window, I've outlined the amount of English players in each of their squads below:

Club	Players	Home grown (%)
Arsenal	8/23	35%
Aston Villa	16/25	64%
Burnley	18/24	75%
Chelsea	3/20	15%
Crystal Palace	15/25	60%
Everton	8/25	32%
Hull City	13/25	52%
Leicester City	17/24	71%
Liverpool	9/19	47%
Manchester City	8/24	33%
Manchester United	12/24	50%
Newcastle United	9/25	36%
Queens Park Rangers	19/25	76%
Southampton	9/20	45%
Stoke City	12/25	48%
Sunderland	12/21	57%
Swansea City	12/25	48%
Tottenham Hotspur	6/23	26%
West Bromwich Albion	10/23	43%
West Ham United	14/24	58%
Total	230/469	49%

Now, it's important to remember that this does not include the currently defined 'U-21s', who do not require registration. This may seem irrelevant, but it's worth noting that the likes of Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain, Hector Bellerin and Harry Kane all fit into that bracket, and would all require registration under the new regulations. This may naturally boost the numbers of English players in the Premier League, but it's worth noting that there are only 11 of the 20 sides in the Premier League that would currently satisfy the proposals.

There is also a more significant trend. As we get further and further up the table, the percentage of English players gets less and less. The sides that would currently satisfy the new regulations sit in the following positions: 4th, 8th, 9th, 10th, 11th, 15th, 16th, 17th, 18th, 19th, 20th. With most of these sitting in the bottom half of the table, does this not just suggest that the best players (i.e. the ones that win titles) are not English?

With this not currently being the case, how do we breed the next generation of footballer, and even more so, encourage them to be successful? All of these new regulations may be completely irrelevant if our youth system does not produce the quality of English player we require to be competitive agains the likes of Spain, Germany and Brazil?

So maybe it's more pertinent to consider the national make-up of our youth sides, as this will give a better representation of the impact of these new regulations. As with the first team, I've listed the English contingent below:

Club	Players	Home grown (%)
Arsenal	16/22	73%
Aston Villa	13/18	72%
Burnley	17/27	62%
Chelsea	20/27	74%
Crystal Palace	17/17	100%
Everton	22/29	76%
Hull City	32/33	97%
Leicester City	15/21	71%
Liverpool	9/16	56%
Manchester City	14/29	48%
Manchester United	24/28	86%
Newcastle United	26/34	76%
Queens Park Rangers	7/14	50%
Southampton	15/19	79%
Stoke City	14/20	70%
Sunderland	22/30	73%
Swansea City	24/30	80%
Tottenham Hotspur	16/22	73%
West Bromwich Albion
West Ham United	16/24	67%
Total	339/438	77%

With the exception of West Brom, whose youth side I could not find, all bar Manchester City have youth sides with at least 50 per cent home grown players, giving rise to the hope that greater regulations around minimum English quotas will make a significant difference. This, coupled with the kind of investment that the likes of City are putting into their youth setups, shows that youth football has become a priority, and with English talent currently dominating the academies up and down the land, it looks like a positive step.

Another recent event that may significantly impact the way that our youth development works is the recent enormous rise in TV rights for the Premier League clubs. With clubs now set to receive a significant pay packet, there will be more to invest on our younger talent. However, the growth in funding for Premier League clubs inevitably inhibits the lower league sides from producing their own players. The likes of Wilfried Zaha, Scott Sinclair and Will Hughes, who came through the Championship youth system are likely to become less and less frequent, as the bigger clubs continue to steal the best talent. Though the Premier League points to the £1bn that the lower league clubs will share from 2016, it is worth pointing out that despite a rise of 70 per cent in overall TV rights fees, the lower leagues have only seen a 30 per cent rise in their cut - maybe not so generous after all?

However, will these make any significant difference to the national team? Or even the performance of our clubs in Europe, as outlined in my previous article? Well, in terms of the national team, it will inevitably help us produce a greater calibre of player, and more consistently. However, it is perhaps our own arrogance that makes us believe that we are in the same bracket as Spain and Germany when it comes to creating players. We are typically impatient, meaning that players are not given the chance to develop when it comes to the national team, and often to their downfall.

Ultimately, we need to accept that we are not good enough when it comes to football. We may have created the game, but we are no longer the kings of it. As a result, just 23 English players played Champions League football last year, compared to 76 from Spain, 51 from Germany and 55 from Brazil. We would be naive to think that we can change that substantially overnight, but it is certainly true that we can bolster those numbers, so perhaps a quota of English players is a good first step.

But now I'm going to be facetious and use a political argument (the election is just a matter of weeks away!). Can you imagine any other industry in the country proposing this? And further still, it being widely accepted? If I turned round and made a public comment that 'XX sector should reserve 50 per cent of English jobs for English people', I'd be signed up to the BNP and ostracised by practically everyone else! But chuck in a ball and a net, and people are falling over one another to support what may otherwise be branded as racist and discriminatory!

Ok, back to the serious argument. I do support the ideas to an extent, though I do suspect it will have a negative impact on the quality of the Premier League. However, this may not be a bad thing when it comes to competing in Europe. Let me explain why. A lower quality Premier League means lower TV rights and prize money for domestic competition. As I mentioned in my earlier post, it is this financial disparity between the Premier League and the Champions League that may have a detrimental impact on the performance of English sides, even if only subconsciously. This proposal may make Europe a larger priority, and we may at last return to seeing English clubs in the latter stages.

This argument is strengthened by the announcement made by UEFA last week. Clearly Michel Platini had been reading my blog too (or so I'd like to think!), as both of the major competitions in have raised their prize money for competitors. For the Champions League sides, all will now share £872m - up from £696m - or an average of £8.7m each, which represents a 38 per cent increase. In the Europa League, it is an even bigger jump, nearly doubling from £972,000 to £1.7m per team. With Europe offering a larger financial reward, and the potential for the domestic game to lower its rewards, could we begin to see a greater emphasis placed on these competitions?

In terms of the national side, I think there is a better alternative to the quotas. In most of the top European nations, leading sides are allowed to submit 'B' teams, who compete at a slightly lower level. These are not like reserve team games, as they are extremely competitive and against teams that are seeking promotion, and offer younger players some game time in conditions similar to those of the normal team. This has seen the likes of Xavi and Iniesta come through the ranks at Barcelona, and was part of the reason for the recent success of the German national side. As such, I would look to implement such as system in England, possibly around Conference level.

The ideas presented by Greg Dyke are not bad ones, and certainly have their advantages when it comes to European competition, but if we're expecting us to take the world stage by storm in the next few years, then we're deluded. It will be a long, slow process to take England back towards the top, but maybe this is a good first step.

The Premier League and Europe: A Subconscious Uncoupling?

And so, a devastating fortnight for English clubs in Europe draws to a close. For the second time in three years, we have no representative in the Champions League beyond the last 16. Even more worryingly, it's the fourth time in five seasons that no English side has made it to the quarters of the Europa League. And never before have both happened in conjunction. So what has gone wrong? How has a league extolled for its pace and power, ranked as one of the top two leagues in the world, deteriorated when it comes to the European competitions?

However, as the stats above suggest, twas not always thus. Between 2004/2005 and 2008/2009, we had at least one English side in the Champions League final every year, and two in 2007/2008! That was less than ten years ago, and I'm struggling to understand what's changed in the intervening period.

Or maybe it's a trend thing. Here, I find a little bit more evidence. From the introduction of the Champions League, there was a six-season period where no Premier League side made it out of the group stages. However, this was the early 90s. The Premier League was not seen as the all-conquering force in world football that it is today, with the enormous spending power available. Equally, it's worth noting that just one side entered the competition from the English league. Compare that to the capitulation that saw three exit the Champions League in the past two weeks, and you see how unfair the comparison between the two is.

So, we've seen that English clubs are struggling to find their great historic form in the Champions League at present, but is it any different when we look at Europe's secondary club competition? Do we have previous heights that we simply aren't hitting?

The short answer - no. Unlike the Champions League, where England at least has an illustrious past, the country has had just eight teams get to the quarter-finals or beyond - and three of those came in the same season! (2012-13 for those who care). According to this recent history, it's hardly a surprise to see English clubs fail to make the cut.

What's more worrying is who the English clubs are being beaten by. For this, I want to look a bit more closely at this season now. In the Champions League, Liverpool failed to make it out of a group consisting of the Spanish side in third place last year (albeit Real Madrid), a Swiss side and a Hungarian debutant. Although the other three managed it to make it through groups far harder than that (bear in mind City's group of Bayern Munich, Roma and CSKA Moscow), they perished to the French champions, runners up and Spanish runners up. This has left a octet of three Spanish sides, two French teams, a German, an Italian and a Portuguese. Now, the three Spanish and the German I can accept, but the other five are all eminently beatable by the likes of Chelsea, City and Arsenal. So the questions remains, why didn't they?

The Europa League is even worse. FA Cup runners-up Hull were beaten before the competition even began, dumped out on away goals by Belgian side Lokeren. Though both of our entrants into the group stages made their way safely through to the Round of 32, where they were joined by Liverpool,  both the Anfield club and Tottenham were dumped out at this stage, losing to Besiktas and Fiorentina respectively. Finally, Everton's annihilation at the hands of Ukraine giants Dynamo Kiev (can't you almost feel the sarcasm?) caps a simply horrendous season in Europe for English clubs. Again, look at at who's left. Two Italians, two Ukrainians, a Spaniard, a Russian, a German and a Belgian. Of those, I would perhaps rank three (Wolfsburg, Sevilla and Napoli) more highly than the likes of Spurs and Everton. But with none of those teams playing our sides, how do we not have more representatives in the last eight?

Perhaps we need to look at the mindset of British clubs when it comes to the European game. Here, there are a couple of potential factors. However, as my title suggests, these are by no means deliberate choices made by English clubs to the detriment of performances in Europe, merely an unintended consequence.

Firstly, just look at the respective value of league and European competitions for English clubs. Last season, champions Manchester City received £24.7m for winning the Premier League title, with additional TV fees taking the total received by the Blues to a whopping £96.5m. Just to prove that English football does not unfairly benefit the champions, fourth placed Arsenal claimed a total of £92.8m. Bear in mind that this is before the mammoth TV rights deal from BT and Sky that sees the Premier League pocket in excess of £5.1bn. If we compare that to the total received for Champions League participation and progression, we see a stark difference. Liverpool's exit in the group stages earned the club just £7.67m in prize money and TV rights, while last season's winners of the competition, Real Madrid, secured £41.5m. The Europa League difference is even more stark. Spurs, who finished sixth in the Premier League, made almost £90m in domestic competition, whilst only securing £4.27m for their participation in the Europa League. With this difference, it would surely come as no surprise for clubs to, either consciously or subconsciously, focus more heavily on domestic competition.

In comparison, foreign clubs do not have the same financial incentive at home. Barring Barcelona and Real Madrid, who combined secure almost half of the annual La Liga TV rights, currently valued at around £482m, the rest are relative paupers, with current champions Atletico Madrid securing just £31m - pittance when compared to the Premier League. It's a similar story in Italy, where Juventus take home a financial package to rival England, but second placed Roma manage only £52m, just over half that of the Turin side. In Germany, it is even more obvious, with the likes of Bayern Munich, Borussia Dortmund and Bayer Leverkusen all taking around £18m in TV rights. With such a large disparity, it is hardly surprising to see teams from these nations taking a greater interest in European competitions, and also explains the rise of Eastern European nations, who without Champions League and Europa League money would perhaps struggle financially.

In terms of a conscious effort to prioritise the league in England, we can see evidence of this with squad selection from the likes of Spurs and Everton in some Europa League ties, with the Londoners in particular coming under scrutiny for fielding seemingly weakened sides. However, this is not the case for Europe's premier competition. With much made of Roman Abramovic's desire for European glory, none of the English participants have obviously favoured domestic competition - demonstrating that either this is a subconscious element, or needs explaining by some other means.

The second factor is a simple one. The fact remains that English sides are still not playing to the style of the European game. If you look at recent winners of both the Champions League and Europa League, neither have used power over pace. Arguably the best European side for some time, the Barcelona from the late 000s/early 2010s, had not a single truly powerful player, with Gerard Pique and Carles Puyol the only ones to add real steel to the play. Flair has always been the key factor in Europe, as demonstrated by the goalscoring abilities of both Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo.

And yet, English sides continue to buy tall, powerful players. Take Manchester City, for example. This January, requiring a striker, their eyes turned to Wilfried Bony, a man famed for his strength and power, but not for his speed. This signing more than any other signifies the inherent importance placed on the Premier League over the Champions League, even if they do not make that conscious decision themselves.

English sides have traditionally been powerful, in order to cope with the more robust elements of the English game, particularly when facing lower league opposition. To this end, I think it will be quite different to marry the two objectives going forward. Therefore, from a purely business standpoint, it makes no sense to look to win the Champions League at the expense of the Premier League, regardless of what Roman Abramovic may say. A subconscious uncoupling it may have been, but it would be to the detriment of English clubs' finances to reconnect with European competition any time soon.

Half Time Report: European Round-Up

Having mainly focused on the Premier League in my blog, it can almost seem like I don't acknowledge the existence of any other leagues! However, while the English leagues continue on through the winter, many of the main European leagues take a nice break for Christmas. This makes it easy for me to do a succinct, but hopefully useful, roundup of some of the key leagues around the continent, looking at the title battle, the challenge for the European places and the threat of relegation.

Spain

Title

After last year's shocking finale which saw Atletico Madrid usurp the Clasico pair to claim the title, the first time that neither Barcelona or Real Madrid had claimed the title since Valencia's win a decade previously, it's been an interesting opening five months to this year.

Unsurprisingly, given the money spent by both Barcelona and Real Madrid, the pair have returned to the summit so far this season, with Madrid leading the Catalans by a single point with a game in hand. However, the reigning champions have refused to give up, with Atletico just a point behind their neighbours, albeit having played two games more. They may be on the back foot this year, but they seem intent on challenging once more.

Europe

It's all the usual suspects once more, with Sevilla currently in the Champions League spot and Valencia and Villarreal occupying the Europa League places. The only shock is the sudden demise of Athletic Bilbao. Having beaten Sevilla to the final Champions League place last year, Los Leones find themselves only 12th so far this year, and are unlikely to be in the shake-up come the end of the season.

Relegation

Realistically, anywhere from 13th down could be considered to be included in the relegation scrap, with Getafe separated from bottom side Cordoba by just six points. At the minute, Elche and Grenada join Cordoba in the relegation zone, with Levante and David Moyes's Real Sociedad, after an appalling start to the season, clinging on above them. I'm sensing numerous changes in the second half of the season as teams jostle for position, and a run of two or three straight victories may see them out of danger.

Germany

Title

Arguably the most one-sided league in Europe. Following a few years of competition involving Borussia Dortmund, with even a title for Wolfsburg, Bayern Munich have made the Bundesliga title their own in recent years. With the Bavarian side currently unbeaten this year, drawing just three games and conceding only four goals, they lead second-placed Wolfsburg by an unassailable 11 points. It's now more a case of when and not if.

Europe

The real race is for second place, with Wolfsburg separated from 9th place Eintracht Frankfurt by as many points as from Bayern the other way. In reality, the Wolves look strong favourites to cement a place in the Champions League. Other than them, the race is incredibly tight, with 3rd to 8th separated by just four points. With their pedigree, you'd always fancy Bayer Leverkusen to make the top four, but any one of Schalke, Borussia Monchengladbach, Augsburg, Hoffenheim or Hannover could sneak into the final spot, with two of the remaining four being entered into the Europa League.

Relegation

Here is where the biggest shock in Europe lies. Despite having won a pair of titles less than five years ago, Borussia Dortmund find themselves in the relegation zone. With players like Mats Hummels and Marco Reus, there is no way they should remain in this predicament, however, their away form abysmal at present, there is no guarantee that they won't get sucked in. Other than that, any of the bottom half of the table could find themselves in trouble come the end of the year, with Werder Bremen, currently in the relegation playoff spot, separated from 10th placed Paderborn by just two points. This is going to be another tight battle.

France

Title

Despite all of the pre-season talk of a Paris-Saint Germain procession with the demise of Monaco, it hasn't gone entirely according to plan for Raymond Blanc's side. Trailing Marseille by three points, and Lyon by two, the likes of Zlatan Ibrahimovic and Edinson Cavani have yet to reach the highs that we saw last year. Though I do expect them to eventually triumph, Marseille have performed exceptionally well this season, with Pierre Andre Gignac and Florian Thavin singled out for particular praise. 

Europe

With Monaco slightly off the pace of the top teams, the four top places are likely to be the three currently challenging for the title and Saint Etienne, though the order is yet to be conclusively decided. The way the form table is going, I would predict a top four of PSG, Marseille, Lyon and Saint Etienne, but there is still much to be decided.

Relegation

As with a number of Europe's top leagues, this is set to be the largest battle this season. With Caen currently being cut away slightly at the bottom, trailing 17th place Metz by four points already, the difference between Evian in 18th and Nice in 11th is just three. The biggest surprise of the bottom half is European regulars Lille. Despite qualifying for this season's Europa League, Les Dogues have struggled in the league, currently languishing in 18th place. Though I suspect they have more than enough quality to drag themselves away from trouble, it is still a worrying time for their supporters, and put themselves under considerable pressure for the remainder of the season.

Italy

Title

Not quite as sewn up as Germany, but Juventus should be considered the strong favourites. Though they may only lead by three points from Roma, they have shown that they have the experience and ability to convert a lead to championships. If Juventus don't win it, I don't see anyone other than Roma claiming the Scudetto, though.

Europe

Behind the leading pair, a gap of nine points goes back to a trio of teams, and with only a further three points back to 8th place, this is set to be the biggest battle we see this season. Lazio currently occupy the final Champions League place, but with considerable European experience behind them in Napoli, Sampdoria, Genoa, Milan and Fiorentina, I expect to see many twists and turns in this battle going forward. 

Relegation

Surprisingly, this seems to be the only league where relegation is a little more cut and dried. With Parma and Cesena on just six and nine points respectively, they look dead and buried. The only real dispute is over the final spot, currently occupied by Cagliari. With a number of teams congregated on 17 points, five clear of the drop, I'm expecting to see a couple sucked into the struggle come the end of the year.

While it's been an interesting season in the Premier League, we're seeing all of Europe's leagues have prizes being hotly contested. Though in some, the largest honour is not really being contested, there are interesting dynamics being played out across Europe. With a long time to go in the season, there is still much to be decided, particularly involving the qualification for European competition next year.

Citeh's European Woes: Why Is It Going Wrong?

Four years of Champions League experience, and City have got exactly nowhere. A last 16 appearance, equalled by Celtic and Basel, and bettered by Cypriot minnows APOEL Nicosia in the same time period. So what's gone wrong for the richest club in the world, champions of one of the world's most competitive leagues twice in the last three years?

In fairness, though this is not a complete excuse, a lot has been said about the bad luck City have suffered when it comes to the Champions League draws they have received. In the last four years they have been drawn alongside the runners-up twice and a semi-finalist, and only once have they been among the favourites to emerge from their group. This particularly stark when we compare their misfortune in draws to Chelsea's opening few draws in the Champions League (2003-2006):

Manchester City                                                          Chelsea

2011 - Bayern Munich, Villareal, Napoli                      2003 - Sparta Prague, Besiktas, Lazio

2012 - Real Madrid, Borussia Dortmund, Ajax            2004 - Porto, CSKA Moscow, PSG

2013 - Bayern Munich, CSKA Moscow, V. Plzen        2005 - Liverpool, Real Betis, Anderlecht

2014 - Bayern Munich, CSKA Moscow, AS Roma     2006 - Barcelona, Werder Bremen, Levski Sofia

As you can see from the two draws, on only one occasion (2004) can Chelsea claim to have had as difficult a group as City, but it is also worth bearing in mind that Paris Saint Germain were not the European force that they are now, and as a result finished bottom of the group that year with just one point. Other than that, Chelsea have had a fairly simple journey to the last 16 as group winners, giving them a preferable draw going forward. On the other hand, on the one occasion City did make it out of their group, their second place finish meant they were paired with a Lionel Messi-inspired Barcelona - hardly an easy task!

However, the draw alone should not be to blame. In order to win Europe's premier competition, you have to be prepared to beat the best, whether that is in your group or in the final. So what has been the cause of City's abject failure in Europe? As any player that has been involved in cup matches can attest to, individual errors can have a catastrophic effect on a team's continued involvement. We can certainly see evidence of this from City here. Joe Hart's indifferent form in Europe was most obviously epitomised by his errors during City's home tie against Bayern Munich in 2013, which saw the Blues concede a pair of goals from handling errors, losing the game 3-1. City's front line has also been accused of mis-firing in Europe, with Edin Dzeko often singled out for punishment.

However, it is the current season's City scapegoat that has got my back up most. The reason for this is very simple. On every channel that provides live football there is an ex (and usually bitter) Red passing comment on City's performances - is that fair? I can't imagine Liam Gallagher turning up at Old Trafford to cover the United game for Sky, any more than seeing Shaun Goater do the commentary for Sky. However, while Michael Owen simply makes self-evident statements for BT Sport, Roy Keane berates everyone (not just City) for ITV, and Gary Neville, to his credit, has attempted to become more impartial in his work for Sky Sports, it is Paul Scholes' attempt at punditry for ITV that most irritates me.

Scholes' comments on Yaya Toure's lack of form earlier this season were perhaps a little harsh, particularly considering that the Ivorian had been the first midfielder to score 20 goals in a Premier League season since Frank Lampard in 2010, but he is entitled to his opinion, and were generally fair. However, since then he has made additional comments on the midfielder's performances, before again berating the City man in his punditry. What's the saying? Once is an accident, twice is coincidence, but three times is deliberate.

There is a part of me that looks at this through cynical eyes. As a self-confessed United fan, Scholes would likely do anything to de-stabilise one of their greatest rivals, particularly if he is jealous of their success at present. With the majority of City's key names like Kompany, Silva and Aguero starting the season in excellent form, it is Yaya Toure that is yet to hit the heights we saw from him last year. He is therefore an easy target, and a way to try and put pressure on the Manchester City midfield. Let us not forget, Scholes is a man who almost attempted to stab Pablo Zabaleta with his studs in his last derby match - he is hardly likely to be the epitome of impartiality. So let's all just take his words with a pinch of salt, eh?

After my customary mid-blog rant, back onto the reasons behind City's failings in Europe. I think some of the blame has to be directed at the manager, particularly on the way that City's sides in Europe have been set up. The game against Roma was a prime example. It is almost like both Pellegrini and Mancini before him thought that because they tend to blow away teams at the Etihad in the Premier League, they will automatically do that in the Champions League. As we have seen, this is not the case. The attacking 4-4-2 formation that has tended to be employed has left City woefully exposed on the counter attack, which we saw time and time again against Roma, and with neither Navas nor Toure willing to chase back, the defence were left short on numerous occasions.

Another key aspect to think about is the fact that City have struggled to break down teams who come to the Etihad to defend and counter i.e. good defensive performances. In City's very first Champions League game, City kept good possession against Napoli, but were unable to break through. Frustration eventually took its toll, causing sloppy play and eventually a goal for Edinson Cavani on the counter. They clearly haven't learnt their lessons, as the Roma game was almost a carbon copy of this. Ironically, City tend to perform better when they are the defensive side, with some of their best performances in the Champions League coming away from home. Victories against CSKA Moscow and Villareal and narrow defeats against Real Madrid and Bayern Munich have all showed promise, but demonstrate the very different teams  they should use for home and away games.

My Manchester City Champions League home team (4-2-3-1)
Hart, Clichy, Kompany, Mangala, Zabaleta, Fernandinho, Lampard, Nasri, David Silva, Yaya Toure, Aguero

My Manchester City Champions League away team (4-2-3-1)
Hart, Kolarov, Kompany, Mangala, Zabaleta, Fernandinho, Fernando, David Silva, Yaya Toure, Milner, Aguero

So what are City's prospects going forward? Until they get a bit of luck, either with the draw or refereeing decisions, they are unlikely to progress much further. Confidence among the squad for European games seems at an all time low. Once they have got themselves into the quarter finals or beyond for the first time, they may have a chance. However, until then, Yaya Toure's quote of 'winning it for the fans' seems a million miles away.

Transfer Deadline Day: A Summer Of Sagas

                         This summer has seen the usual hustle and bustle around Europe, from car-window interviews to gossip columns. The main theme of this transfer window has been sagas, with players such as Bale, Suarez, Rooney and Fabregas all involved in drawn-out proceedings. However, the money that has been spent on players this summer is astonishing, and this post will review the biggest and most important signings and sagas from around the major European nations.

England:

Biggest Fee Paid: Mesut Ozil - Real Madrid to Arsenal (£42.4 Million)

Biggest Fee Recieved: Gareth Bale - Tottenham Hotspur to Real Madrid (£85.3 Million)

Most Active: Crystal Palace (16 new signings)

Most Spent: Tottenham Hotspur (£109 Million)

Review:

                           As is illustrated by the above and below statistics, it is England where the majority of the big money moves have been. English clubs also account for the vast majority of transfer sagas this summer, with Gareth Bale's seemingly inevitable move to Real Madrid taking forever to complete. Another man that commanded a considerable amount of column inches this summer was Luis Suarez. Having stated his displeasure at percieved 'broken promises' from the Liverpool hierarchy, he made his intention to leave clear. Cue two bids from Arsenal, the second designed to trigger a release clause in his contract. Embarrassingly for the Gunners, they had misinterpreted the clause, meaning that no deal had been struck. As the saga dragged on, it became more apparent that the Uruguayan would not be leaving Liverpool without a fight. This eventually culminated in Suarez accepting that he would have to stay at Anfield.

                            The big winners from this window are undoubtedly Tottenham Hotspur. Being able to spend £109 Million and have only effectively spent 25 puts them in good stead for the Financial Fair Play regulations, and gives them an enormous amount of talent at the same time. The big losers: Manchester United. A distinct lack of signings will do little to calm the doubters of David Moyes and Ed Woodward, and the fact that they wasted so much time on the sagas of Cesc Fabregas, Thiago Alcantara, Wayne Rooney and the Everton duo of Marouane Fellaini and Leighton Baines will have further exacerbated matters. To end up with only one major signing this summer is poor, and not what you would expect a championship winning side to manage. Had they decided not to sign anyone, that is a different matter. However, having chased and failed, Moyes's reputation will not have been aided.

                             England's transfer deadline day saw just two big money moves. Of the top 6, only two had failed to spend any money to this point, and it was today (arguably with an element of panic-buying) that saw them finally open the cheque-book. Firstly, Arsenal managed to capture the mercurial German Mesut Ozil from Real Madrid. Though a good signing for the Gunners, I question firstly the £42.4 Million fee, and the fact that midfield is not an area that I would consider weak in the Arsenal squad. They would have been much better off buying defenders or strikers. The second was expected: Marouane Fellaini's move to Manchester United. Though they cut it fine, after their pursuit of Ander Herrera ended shambolically (with reports of imposters attempting to defraud money from the Spaniards), they did manage to finalise the former Everton man. It seems that they did not manage to finalise a deal for Real Madrid's Fabio Coentrao, with documents handed in late and with multiple spelling mistakes. All in all, an eventful final day, but not one United will look back on with fondness.

Total Paid: £624,560,000

Spain:

Biggest Fee Paid: Gareth Bale - Tottenham Hotspur to Real Madrid (£85.3 Million)

Biggest Fee Recieved: Radamel Falcao - Atletico Madrid to AS Monaco (£49 Million)

Most Active: Elche and Sevilla (14 new signings)

Most Spent: Real Madrid (£146.1 Million)

Review:

                                As is the case practically every season, the main Spanish transfer stories revolved around the El Clasico pair, with a case of one-upmanship seemingly prevolent. Real Madrid cast the first stone, signing the hotly rated pairing of Isco and Asier Illaramendi for £20 Million and £34 Million respectively. Barcelona, having not spent at that point, then unleashed what was, at the time, the biggest transfer of the summer, with the capture of Santos wonderkid Neymar. For a fee of £57 Million, he has a lot to live up to at the Catalan club, but what team would not want a strikeforce of Messi and Neymar? Madrid, not to be outdone by their fiercest rivals, had the final say. After a prolonged negotiation, which went on far longer than anyone cared for, they managed to snare their man the day before the deadline. Gareth Bale would join the Galacticos at Madrid for a world record fee of £85.3 Million.

                                 The main winners in this transfer window are probably the pair of them, as they now both have formidable squads that will be envied by most managers around the world, and they are both capable of claiming any title they want this season. It is an extraordinary amount of money to pay for those players, but if they come good, the rewards will be just as substantial. The main loser is probably Atletico Madrid. Although they managed to recoup £50 Million for their talismanic striker Falcao, they failed to adequately replace him. Though David Villa is an excellent signing, his powers are beginning to wane, and I think they will miss the big Columbian's presence up front this season.

                                   Transfer deadline day in Spain consisted mostly of the unveiling of the world's most expensive player, with Gareth Bale paraded around the Santiago Bernabeu in the famous white shirt. The main moves on deadline day were all from Real Madrid, with the need to recoup some of their expenditure. The first move was the Brazilian playmaker Kaka back to AC Milan. After a turbulent few seasons in Spain, which most will consider a failure for the former World's Best Player, he will be glad to have left. Finally, Mesut Ozil's transfer will have helped line the fairly empty Madrid coffers, as £42.4 Million is not to be sniffed at. That made the day a bittersweet one for the Madrid fans, as the German had become a fan favourite, and many were sad to see him leave.

Total Paid: £313,000,000

Italy:

Biggest Fee Paid: Gonzalo Higuain - Real Madrid to Napoli (£31.3 Million)

Biggest Fee Recieved: Edinson Cavani - Napoli to Paris Saint Germain (£55 Million)

Most Active: Parma (29 new signings)

Most Spent: Napoli (£71.7 Million)

Review:

                                    Italian football's summer transfer window was dominated by one club: Napoli. The initial speculation over the future of Uruguayan striker Edinson Cavani culminated in his transfer to Paris Saint Germain. Due to the amount of interest in his signature, Napoli were able to hold clubs to ransom, meaning that the £55 Million release clause in his contract needed to be met. Once that departure had happened, a spending spree could begin. Though six or seven top quality players were signed, the marquee signing was undoubtedly that of Gonzalo Higuain from Real Madrid for a fee of £31.3 Million. However, the Naples side was not the only one investing in a top quality striker, after the surprise news that Mario Gomez had left European Champions Bayern Munich in favour of Fiorentina for a reported fee of £15 Million. The champions Juventus, unwilling to be outdone, managed to snare two: firstly Fernando Llorente on a free, and then Carlos Tevez from Manchester City for a fee of £10 Million.

                                     The main winners of this transfer window in Italy have undoubtedly been Napoli, though Juventus's forward line is now impressive. The trio of signings from Madrid, with Jose Callejon and Raul Albiol joining Higuain, along with Liverpool's Pepe Reina and PSV Eindhoven's Dries Mertens. This side is now well capable of, at least, Champions League qualification, and perhaps even the title. The losers in the window are probably the Milan sides, with AC losing Kevin-Prince Boateng, though they did rectify that somewhat with the signing of Madrid's Kaka. Inter, however, have failed to land that marquee signing, electing instead to sign a few players at around £6-8 Million. How successful that will prove is yet to be seen.

                                        Deadline day was relatively quiet in Italy, with the vast majority of deals done early in the summer. Only Milan were particularly busy, with the initial signing of Real Madrid's Kaka, for a reported fee of £8 Million. This is especially impressive when you consider that they managed to get £56 Million for the Brazilian from the Spaniards just 4 years ago. Further signings of Valter Birsa from Genoa and Alessandro Matri from Juventus may prove good signings, but they pretty much constituted the largest signings on the day itself.

Total Paid: £295,300,000

France:

Biggest Fee Paid: Edinson Cavani - Napoli to Paris Saint Germain (£55 Million)

Biggest Fee Recieved: Mahmadou Sakho - Paris Saint Germain (£18 Million)

Most Active: Bastia and AS Monaco (12 new signings)

Most Spent: AS Monaco (£140.7 Million)

Review:

                                           As was to be expected, the two oil rich clubs almost monopolised the spending in France, with Paris Saint Germain and AS Monaco fighting it out between themselves for the biggest Ligue 1 transfer of the summer. AS Monaco began the spending early, with firstly a £50 Million deal for Radamel Falcao, before a £70 Million double swoop for Porto's James Rodriguez and Joao Moutinho. Not to be outdone, the Parisians then broke the principality's Falcao record with a £55 Million transfer of Edinson Cavani. They backed this up with a £15 Million of Lille's Lucas Digne and a £31.4 Million transfer of Roma's Marquinhos. Monaco then finished the spending with deals for Toulalan, Romero and finally Sevilla's Geoffrey Kondogbia, taking their total past £140 Million.

                                          If both of these sides constitute the winners in this season's transfer market, then Lille and Montpellier have to be the losers. If those two sides want to be challenging for honours and Champions League places then they need to be continuing to strengthen. Lille, in particular, who have lost some of their star talent in recent years, have failed to adequately replace them.

                                           With the two big spenders getting the majority of their deals done early doors, it was over to the sides like Lyon and Marseille to provide the entertainment on deadline day. The days leading up to September 2nd had been dominated by the behaviour of Lille midfielder and Marseille target Florian Thuavin. After some exceptional performances at the back-end of last season, the 20-year-old was advised to request a new contract, despite only having signed in January. The suspicions were raised that this was Marseille's advice, attempting to drive a wedge between the two parties. If this is the reason, it worked to perfection for OM, who managed, eventually, to grab the youngster for £12 Million. This left a very sour taste in the mouths of Lille, who complained that Marseille had unfairly approached their player. Other than this drama, there was little on deadline day to get unduly excited about.

Total Paid: £311,700,000

Germany:

Biggest Fee Paid: Mario Gotze - Borussia Dortmund to Bayern Munich (£32.5 Million)

Biggest Fee Recieved: Mario Gotze - Borussia Dortmund to Bayern Munich (£32.5 Million)

Most Active: Bayer Leverkusen, Eintracht Frankfurt and Stuttgart (9 new signings)

Most Spent: Bayern Munich (£52.5 Million)

Review:

                                   Germany, similarly to Italy, has had a relatively quiet summer in terms of transfers. After much initial speculation about the futures of Dortmund pair Mario Gotze and Robert Lewandowski, their fates were sealed very early on, with Gotze joining Bayern Munich for £32.5 Million, and Lewandowski signing a new contract at Signal Iduna Park. Certainly, these two clubs have been the largest spenders in the transfer market, with the highly rated Thiago Alcantara joining Gotze at Bayern Munich, after being wanted by Manchester United, to further strengthen the midfield. For Dortmund, they added to the forward line early by bringing in the pacy Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang from St. Etienne for around £11.5 Million, and then replaced Gotze with Shakhtar Donetsk's notoriously unspellable Henrikh Mkhitaryan for around £20 Million. The Ukrainian had been tracked by Liverpool and Tottenham before moving to Germany.

                                     Other big transfers from Germany include Mario Gomez's decision to leave the European champions in favour of Fiorentina, Luiz Gustavo's £17 Million move to Wolfsburg and Bayer Leverkusen's signing of Hamburg's highly rated youngster Son-Ming Heun, in order to replace the departed Andre Schurrle. In the final few days of the transfer window, the major transfer deal was that of AC Milan's Kevin Prince Boateng to Schalke 04. A fantastic signing for the Germans, as they had needed that extra bit of creativity. Other than that, very little activity occurred on the final day.

                                     Unlike in the other countries, there does not appear to be many obvious winners or losers in the Bundesliga. Both Bayern and Dortmund bought well, but they also lost a couple of top quality players. Schalke and Leverkusen both added well to their squads to move them closer to the top two. Arguably the only loser is Hamburg, as they failed to replace the top-scoring Son after his departure to Leverkusen.

Total Paid: £216,500,000

Conclusion:

All of the nations have spent big this season, with every league being involved in a transfer over £30 Million. This has caused records to be shattered in England, and I suspect around many clubs too. How well these players will perform is yet to be seen, but the price tags placed on many will put more pressure on their shoulders. This year's deadline day was not as dramatic as those of previous years, but the amount of money spent more than makes up for this.

UEFA Super Cup 2013: What A Difference A Year Makes

                                  What a difference a year makes... 8742 little hours... After their complete obliteration at the hands of Atletico Madrid, and in particular Radamel Falcao, in the UEFA Super Cup in 2012, Chelsea this time lined up against Bayern Munich for the same trophy last night. Unlike last year, in which Chelsea had started the night as Champions League champions, and favourites, last night the Londoners began as distinct outsiders, and Europa League holders. With Bayern Munich sweeping all aside on their route to the Champions League title last year, and with the highly sought-after Pep Guardiola now at the helm, there were few that suggested that Chelsea would realistically win. However, with Mourinho back at his spiritual home, Chelsea were quietly confident. And history was on their side...

                                    Last May, Chelsea were in a vastly similar position, in which they lined up against a heavily favoured Bayern Munich side. This was not for the UEFA Super Cup, but for the most impressive European accolade available, the Champions League. Further supporting Munich's tag of favourites was the fact that they were playing on home soil, at the Allianz Arena. The early predictions looked fairly accurate, as the Bavarians set about their English opponents. Chances came and went, with Olic, Gomez and Robben all coming close, with the latter rapping the post with a low drive. Chelsea offered little in the way of forward motion, with Solomon Kalou having their best opportunity. However, as the game moved towards the last ten minutes, Bayern upped the pace, which paid off almost immediately. Toni Kroos placed an excellent cross to the far post, which was met by Muller. His downwards header bounced off the floor and into the roof of the net, handing Bayern a valuable 1-0 lead. With time ticking down, Chelsea won a corner. Another fantastic delivery from Juan Mata found Didier Drogba, who powered the header past Manuel Neuer to send the game into extra time.

                                       In extra time, the pattern of Bayern dominance continued. Just 5 minutes into the extra period, a poor challenge by Drogba on Franck Ribery earned the Bavarians a penalty. However, Robben's spot-kick was poor and easily saved by Cech. The rest of the extra time was tight and uneventful, meaning that the game went to the lottery of a penalty shootout. After Bayern scored their first, Mata could only find Neuer, handing the Germans the advantage. The next four penalties were all scored, including one by Manuel Neuer himself. Ivica Olic was the next man up, but his tame penalty was saved by Cech to his left. After Ashley Cole levelled the match at 3-3, Bastien Schweinsteiger would take the critical penalty. The Bayern captain could only hit the post, meaning that Drogba had the chance to win the Champions League for Chelsea. The Ivorian striker, who had already agreed to move to China with Shanghai Shenhua, knew that this would be his last kick as a Chelsea player. Placing the ball confidently, he sent Neuer the wrong way to win the trophy for the Londoners. Just one year and a few months later, few would see the replay being as similar.

                                         However, it is worth examining the recent history of this Super Cup. Bearing in mind the reputation of the respective competitions from which the two clubs qualify, you would always expect the Champions League winners to be victorious in these games. However, if we look at the last ten matches in the Super Cup, the record is much more even than would be anticipated. Based on the last 10 editions, including last night, the score is Champions League 5 Europa League 5. Even more startling is the fact that the winner has alternated between the Champions League winner and Europa League winner for the last 10 years. Particularly surprising results over the last decade include the 2006 final, in which Sevilla demolished a Ronaldinho inspired Barcelona side 3-0. The 2010 final was also shocking, as the Jose Mourinho managed Inter Milan side was comprehensively beaten by Atletico Madrid, with goals from Forlan and Aguero condemning Mourinho to his second Super Cup defeat. It remains the only trophy that Mourinho has competed for and not won. Last year's final also involved Atletico, as they destroyed the Chelsea side 4-1, with a first half hat-trick from Falcao.

                                           With the evidence of the last decade, it should not have come as too much of a surprise that Chelsea performed admirably during last night's encounter. From the beginning, they made it clear that they would not simply defend, and that they were highly capable on the break. This was proven just 8 minutes in, as a lightning fast counter from Eden Hazard found new-boy Andre Schurrle. The German's cut-back fell neatly into the path of Fernando Torres, who expertly volleyed past the helpless Neuer. Every year there is speculation over whether the Spaniard would reclaim his form, but this finish implies that form is temporary but class in permanent. After the goal, Chelsea had to withstand some heavy pressure from the German champions, but they continued to pose a threat on the break. As the half-time break drew close, Brazilian midfielder Ramires picked up a silly yellow card for a challenge on Ribery, which would come back to haunt him later. Nevertheless, the English side managed to hang onto their lead going into half-time.

                                              Mourinho's team talk would have been very much along the lines of 'keep going, and do not concede early'. But this team talk went out of the window within two minutes of the restart. After a good attacking start, Chelsea lost the ball to Franck Ribery. He jinked inside a couple of defenders before unleashing a powerful shot. Though the shot was close to the goalkeeper, and error by Cech allowed the ball to fly off his hands and into the net to level the scores. Chances then came by for both sides, with Oscar wasting the best one for the Londoners. However, the game turned after 85 minutes. After a poor touch, Bayern substitute Mario Gotze went into a challenge second favourite with Ramires. The Brazilian's challenge was robust, and arguably two footed, leaving the German prostrate on the floor. This prompted a second yellow card for the midfielder, leaving Chelsea in trouble. The remainder of the match took place in Chelsea's half, with long range shots peppering Cech's goal. But the breakthrough did not come, meaning that another 1-1 draw after 90 minutes, and another 30 minutes of extra time.

                                                  Extra time started with a bang for the English side, as they reclaimed the lead just three minutes into the extra period. Eden Hazard, who had dominated the Bayern defence all game, managed to skip inside of Phillip Lahm and fire a shot towards goal. Similarly to Bayern's goal, questions must be asked about the goalkeeper, who failed to deal with the shot, allowing it to fly past him. Having claimed the lead, Chelsea then decided to shut up shop, defending deeply and requiring their goalkeeper to redeem himself. And that he did, making stunning saves to deny Mandzukic from point blank range. As time ran out, the shots were coming in from long range, and Bayern had resorted putting crosses into Chelsea's box. It looked impossible to break through the wall of blue defenders, until the very last kick of the game. A hopeful ball was flicked on by Mandzukic to the feet of Javi Martinez, and the Spanish international managed to beat Cech at his near post to ensure that the contest went to penalties.

                                                     Remembering the events of May 2012, both sides would have been well aware of each other. This time, the penalties began with 8 consecutive successful penalties, taking the contest effectively into sudden death. After Xherdan Shaqiri found the net (just) for Bayern, the weight fell onto the shoulders of Romelu Lukaku. After a stuttering start, the penalty was weak, and easily saved by Neuer. This ensured that Bayern earned revenge on their English opponents, and claimed the Super Cup, retaining the incredible alternating run between Champions League/Europa League clubs. Chelsea will take solace in the fact that Bayern are currently considered the best team in the world, and Chelsea were within one kick of beating them. This will not prevent the agony for Lukaku and the rest of the squad, but it does show just how far the Londoners have come.

UEFA Champions League Draw: Fairness or Retain the Status Quo?

                             Today was the day in which Europe's elite learnt their fate for the next few months of continental competition. For some, this was considerably more daunting than others. With the way in which the groups are determined, plenty of good sides end up with with groups far harder than others, which some people have argued is unfair. This post will explain the current way of determining the 'pots', and analyse its fairness based on the accusations made of it. I will then try and give another viable alternative to the current system, that could work out in a fairer way. Finally, I will examine the current season's groups, assessing the relative difficulty of them, and who is likely to progress.

                               If we begin with the way in which the groups are drawn, it is first important to explain some of the relevant terminology. The way European competitions are drawn is this: the sides are divided into four seeded 'pots'. Each group will have one team from each of the four 'pots'. Rules also dictate that teams from the same country cannot meet one another in the group stages, often leading to a set of complicated circumstances. However, the most complex of the issues is how the 'pots' are decided, that is, which teams are placed into which 'pots'. With the exception of the holders, who automatically go into pot 1, the way in which this is determined is by the 'European Club Coefficients'. This is calculated from two sets of data. The most important of these is the previous European results in each of the last 5 seasons. A team receives a number of points for qualifying for the Champions League group stage (4), and more for subsequent wins and draws whilst in the competition (2 and 1). Should the side reach the last 16, a further 5 points are added, and an extra point is added for every round they progress past that point. This contributes for 80% of the overall coefficient. The other 20% consists of the club's 'association coefficient', meaning that the league in which the side plays contributes to their overall coefficient. Combined, these create a system in which teams can be ranked and, from this, pots and subsequently groups are decided.

                                However, arguments have been raised that this system of determining groups is flawed and militates against up-and-coming clubs, whilst allowing established mediocre clubs to retain their status. There are several examples of this, and especially in recent years. Firstly, the treatment of Manchester City in the Champions League draw in comparison to their English counterparts. In both of their previous seasons in this competition, they have been awarded 'groups of death'. In their inaugural season, they faced the German giants and eventual finalists Bayern Munich, Italy's high-flying Napoli side and Spain's dangerous Villareal. Year 2, if anything, got even harder, pairing City with three fellow champions of their respective leagues. Real Madrid, Borussia Dortmund and Ajax is a ridiculously tough group, and one that may well have unfairly been dealt. Had that group occurred in City's first season, when they had zero European experience, and had only managed to finish 3rd in the Premier League, it would have been excusable. As a result we can write off the first season as an unfortunate by-product of their inexperience. However, after a year in which they narrowly missed out on qualification from the toughest group in the competition, and claimed their domestic league title, I think the second year group is absurd. If we compare their plight to the fortune that Arsenal usually receive, we see a startling contrast. Arsenal, although they have qualified for the Champions League every year for the last 15 years, have not threatened to win the competition in the 5 years measured by the coefficient. In terms of their league form, they have made a habit of scraping a 4th place finish in recent years. As league form is not taken into account, Arsenal are consistently placed in the 1st pot, ensuring that they receive a greater chance of progression from the group stages. I believe this is incredibly unfair, as it somewhat undermines the idea of 'Champions' League. If those who finish 4th are placed in a vastly easier group to the league champions, what is the point of winning the domestic competition?

                                 In case you just think that this is a City fan out for a bit of a rant, I will cover a couple more examples. What this system appears to do is not account for who has the best team, and judge accordingly. I accept this would be incredibly difficult to do in a way that is not already covered. For example, good sides in poor leagues can often rest players in their domestic campaigns and still win, guaranteeing qualification for next season, and ensuring that the entirety of their focus is on getting out of their group. Sides like Ukraine's Shakhtar Donetsk typify this, as they were placed in Pot 2 this time around, despite most agreeing that most of Pot 3 were also better than the Eastern Europeans. In the last couple of years, Celtic have attempted this, with it coming to fruition last season. If we compare this with non-champion sides from highly competitive leagues, we see another unfair area. Looking at Napoli in particular, they were unable to rest any of their top players in their domestic league or the Champions League campaign of 2 years ago, inevitably taking its toll on one. For the side from Naples, this took its toll on their league form, meaning that they failed to qualify for the following year's competition. This has a disastrous effect on their coefficient, ensuring that they receive a far tougher group than the sides from easier leagues.

                                 Finally, for those who are interested in conspiracy theories, or just really dislike Michel Platini (the second of which I probably fit into), there is another criticism of the system. As the coefficients are decided by UEFA themselves, which Platini heads, he arguably could be biased one way or another. Given his hypocrisies over the spending of English clubs whilst exonerating his own Paris Saint Germain side, it seems an odd coincidence that PSG, who have had minimal European experience over the last few years, and only reached the quarter-finals last time around, have moved into Pot 2 this season, whilst last-years finalists Borussia Dortmund, who also have a stronger European pedigree, remain stuck in Pot 3. Whether this is truly a sign of corruption, or simply an insufficient prize given to those that progress to the latter stages, it is difficult to tell. As much as I would like Platini to be dethroned and disgraced, I think that the system simply fails to adequately reward the semi finalists and finalists.

                                    Looking at the system, I would change it in the following ways to rectify some of the problems listed above. Firstly, the coefficient system as a whole is not a bad idea, however, I feel the 80:20 ratio of European to domestic competition is too much. I think 70:30 or even 65:35 would be more appropriate to prevent the smaller teams resting players and gaining an unfair advantage. I also think that the top leagues' champions should also be guaranteed places in the top 2 pots. This would prevent the unfair treatment of teams like City, and would also prevent just top 4 sides like Arsenal constantly being placed in the top pots. I do not advocate placing champions all in pot 1, as that completely ignores previous European experience, but the top 2 leaves sufficient wiggle room. Finally, I would also scale down the bonus for getting out of the group to 3, and then add 1 point for every round negotiated, and 5 to the eventual runner-up. This will allow those that have been most successful in the previous campaign to reap the full reward for their efforts. Though I am certain that this system would have alternative problems, I am sure that it would solve many of the current ones.

                                    The result of this system is this year's draw, which has shown the benefits and problems with the current system. Based on the club coefficients, pot 1 consisted of holders Bayern Munich, along with Barcelona, Real Madrid, Manchester United, Arsenal, Chelsea, Benfica and Porto. Pot 2 had Atletico Madrid, Schalke 04, CSKA Moscow, AC Milan, Marseille, Shakhtar Donetsk, Paris Saint Germain and Juventus. In Pot 3 was Manchester City, Ajax, Borussia Dortmund, Basle, Bayer Leverkusen, Galatasaray, Olympiakos and Zenit Saint Petersburg. Finally, Pot 4 had Real Sociedad, FC Copenhagen, Viktoria Plzen, Celtic, Steaua Bucharesti, Anderlecht, Napoli and Austria Vienna.

Group A: Manchester United, Shakhtar Donetsk, Bayer Leverkusen, Real Sociedad
                   Not the easiest group, but by no means the hardest. After the second pot was drawn, fans of Manchester United and David Moyes would have been very happy. The final two sides will make life difficult for the new United manager. I would still expect the English champions to get out of the group, but there may well be one or two bumps along the way. Bayer Leverkusen would be my tip for second, unless United have another 2011/2012 style capitulation.

Group B: Real Madrid, Juventus, Galatasaray, Copenhagen
                     A case of three into two doesn't go in this group, with Copenhagen seemingly destined for the nul point mark. Despite Galatasaray's impressive performances against Madrid last season, I expect them to be the side that has to exit. As for the winner of the group, I think a Madrid side consisting of Bale, Ronaldo, Casillas, Benzema et al will have enough, but I expect it to be a close run thing with Juve.

Group C: Benfica, Paris Saint Germain, Olympiakos, Anderlecht
                      One of the contenders for easiest group of the night, with PSG the likely beneficiaries. After another summer spending spree, the Parisians should find this group fairly straight-forward, leaving Olympiakos and Benfica to fight it out over the final qualifying position. Benfica get my vote, with the previous experience of Champions League qualification vital.

Group D: Bayern Munich, CSKA Moscow, Manchester City, Viktoria Plzen
                      Though the holders will present a challenge, this is a considerably easier group than either of the two previous draws for the English side. With the quality they have in their ranks, I fully expect them to get themselves out of the group stage for the first time, though perhaps only as runners-up. I expect that escaping the group is the expectation this year, with anything else seen as a bonus. Bayern should win the group, and I wouldn't bet against them reaching a third consecutive final.

Group E: Chelsea, Schalke 04, Basel, Steaua Bucharesti
                        Probably my pick for easiest group, with Chelsea the firm favourites to progress as winners. Schalke only qualified in 4th place in Germany, and the other two have come from less well know footballing nations. I expect the Germans to join the Londoners in the last 16, but I wouldn't be surprised if either of the other two upset the apple cart a little.

Group F: Arsenal, Marseille, Borussia Dortmund, Napoli
                         Certainly a contender for the hardest group of the night, with all four coming from competitive footballing nations. Though the Gunners were top seeds, I would not be at all surprised to see them fall at the first hurdle this time around. The pedigree and experience of the Borussia Dortmund side, along with the expensively assembled and impressive Napoli outfit will present an incredibly difficult test. Without significant spending on improvements, I think this could be the first English side out of this year's Champions League.

Group G: Porto, Atletico Madrid, Zenit Saint Petersburg, Austria Vienna
                            Though not the toughest group, this has the potential to be one of the most intriguing. All three of the top pots have the realistic potential to make it through, and though one would expect Austria Vienna to perish, they could be the APOEL Nicosia of this season.

Group H: Barcelona, AC Milan, Ajax, Celtic
                              And we finish with the hardest group of them all. As Neil Lennon visibly sunk into his chair at the announcement of his team's participation in this group, this said all that needed to be said about the state of Group H. Unlike others, which will have a handful of interesting fixtures, this group has the potential to have an enthralling game every time (especially if Celtic perform against Barcelona the way they did last time around!)

                                        
                                      The draw for this season's Champions League has thrown up a few gems, with a couple of classics in the offing. I do hope that the hardest groups live up to expectation, and we genuinely see the best 16 teams in the competition progress. Unfortunately, thanks to the coefficient system, I fear that this will not be the case.
                                     

Newcastle United: Europe a Voyage Too Far?

2012/2013 Season Review:

                After a highly successful previous season, in which Newcastle narrowly missed out on Champions League football on the final day, settling instead for the Europa League, the Magpies made only a couple of pre-season signings, with French right-back Mathieu Debuchy and Ajax’s Vurnon Anita joining the ranks. More of the same success were expected by the Geordie fans, with the clinical Senegalese strike force of Demba Ba and Papiss Cisse looking particularly dangerous. The season began encouragingly, with a 2-1 home victory over a Champions League rival from last year, Tottenham. Whilst a 2-0 defeat at Stamford Bridge followed, Newcastle managed to make it into the Group Stages of the Europa League, a competition that would eventually take its toll on the calendar and fatigue.

                4 draws out of 6 games in September followed, leaving the Magpies a long way off the pace of the league leaders, and dumping them out of the Capital One Cup at Old Trafford. After Europa League victories against Bordeaux and Club Bruges, Newcastle were becoming favourites to progress from their group. However, as has so often been the case, the European success was beginning to take its toll on their league form. A disappointing 0-3 home defeat to Manchester United began to illustrate the cracks in the team, before a heartbreaking late Demba Ba own goal denied Newcastle a morale-boosing victory in the Tyne-Wear derby at the Stadium of Light. After a late October victory at home to West Brom, Newcastle’s over exertion really began to show, going the entire month of November without a win, picking up only one point in the league. Relegation form for any side, and a sign of what was to come.

                Newcastle’s ‘hit and miss’ form was most evident during December. Starting with a strong 3-0 victory, and progression in the Europa League looked like Newcastle had turned a corner. However, subsequent poor performances in their next two outings, before a narrow win over QPR, left Newcastle with two difficult trips in December. Firstly, at Old Trafford, Newcastle performed admirably, leading firstly 2-1, and then 3-2, before being pegged back by the champions elect to lose the game 4-3. A game at the Emirates followed, and after a rather drab first 50 minutes, Newcastle’s fatigue finally got the better of them, eventually being thumped 7-3. These results put Newcastle firmly into the relegation battle, leading Alan Pardew to ask for reinforcements in the January transfer window.

                The month started in a very negative manner, with a disappointing exit from the FA Cup at the hands of Brighton, and then the loss of talismanic striker Demba Ba to Chelsea. Newcastle reacted sharply, making 3 French signings: Mapu Yanga-M’Biwa to sure up the defence, Moussa Sissoko, to give more drive in the midfield, and Yoann Gouffran to replace the outgoing Ba. It was the midfielder Sissoko who made the immediate impact, inspiring Newcastle firstly to an away win against Aston Villa, before spearheading Newcastle’s last minute victory over Chelsea. The game against Chelsea also saw the return of Ba, who lasted only 30 minutes until being forced off with a broken nose from a very nasty looking challenge from Newcastle’s Fabrizio Coloccini. These two successive victories led pundits to assume that Newcastle had begun to stabilise and had too much quality to stay up.

                The Magpies showed no such inconsistency in their Europa League form, dispatching firstly Metalist Kharkiv, before seeing off oil-rich Anzhi Makhachkala to reach the Quarter Finals. Unfortunately, their performances on the continent continued to be their only shining light of an otherwise poor season, as they continued to leak points, especially to those sides around them. By the end of March, Newcastle remained in the middle of a relegation dogfight, and desperately needed to pick up points to drag themselves away.

                The Europa League fairytale came to a premature end at the hands of Portuguese champions Benfica in mid-April, after which Newcastle capitulated, being thoroughly outplayed in the return Tyne-Wear derby at St. James’s Park. The game will best be remembered for the ugly scenes outside the grounds, where violence broke out between opposing fans, and eventually a police horse ended up bearing the brunt of a Newcastle fan’s rage. It will also be remembered for Paolo di Canio’s celebratory antics on the touchline in his first Sunderland game as manager. A 0-6 aberration against Liverpool swiftly followed, leaving Newcastle in deep trouble by the last three games. Fortunately for Newcastle, the sides around them failed to adequately take advantage of their errors, allowing the Magpies to avoid the drop with a 2-1 victory over QPR on the penultimate weekend.

                Overall, although Newcastle reached the Quarter Finals of a continental competition, a 16^th place finish in the Premier League is simply not good enough for a club of their stature. Pundits have blamed the complacency of a manager recently having been handed an 8 year contract, but I believe their exertions in the Europa League left the Magpies, a side who have only recently reclaimed their position in the Premier League, irretrievable short on players and energy. Without the distraction next season, I firmly believe we will see a better performance.

 

Player of the Season: Yohan Cabaye – Before the departure of Demba Ba, the Senegalese striker would have been my pick. Despite missing sections of the season through injury, Newcastle’s Euro 2012 representative in the French squad deserves a mention. When without his presence in the centre of midfield, Newcastle’s performance suffered. He was also at the heart of much of their positive aspects throughout the season and will be a major contributor to any future success.

 

Game of the Season: Newcastle 3-2 Chelsea – The game in which Newcastle’s new French signings, and in particular, Moussa Sissoko, endeared themselves to the Geordie fans. Having fallen behind after an hour, it looked as if Newcastle would throw away another three points in their bid for survival. Two goals from Moussa Sissoko, including an injury time winner, sent St. James’s into delirium, and decided what had been, at times, a rather bad-tempered contest.

 

Summer Transfer Targets (What I Think They Need): The simple answer: to bed their new French contingent into the squad better.  Rumours of squad unrest and problems with the language barrier were commonly reported from the Newcastle camp towards the back-end of the season. Another striker may well be the only position I would recommend, with Loic Remy being a good choice.

 

Transfer Gossip Links:

In:

James McCarthy (Wigan Athletic, CM)

Out:

Papiss Cisse (Borussia Dortmund, ST)

Gateway to Europe: The 2013 Spanish Grand Prix

            After the four ‘flyaway’ Grand Prix around the Middle East and Asia, Formula 1 returned to Europe in the form of the Spanish Grand Prix today. The return to Europe certainly has its advantages for those watching in Britain, as finally qualifying and race times remain fairly stable. Getting up in the early hours of the morning to watch a race is never as pleasant as enjoying it over lunch! The 2013 championship remains incredibly open, with Sebastian Vettel and Red Bull looking the early favourites to take their fourth successive title, but Ferrari, Mercedes and Lotus believe they have a realistic chance. The Spanish Grand Prix certainly puts the most pressure on the Ferrari driver of Fernando Alonso, being his home Grand Prix. The vast majority of the 95,000 fans that arrived at the Catalunya circuit were undoubtedly supporting their home man. However, in qualifying, fans that had come supporting the Ferraris were left disappointed.

 

                Qualifying has very much been Mercedes forte so far this season, and so it proved again yesterday. A front row lockout for the German team, with Nico Rosberg leading Lewis Hamilton by a couple of tenths. A second successive pole for the German, who would have hoped to perform better in the race this time, having finished 9^th after starting from pole in Bahrain. Nevertheless, after qualifying, both Rosberg and Hamilton made statements to the press claiming that they were not confident about race pace. Vettel was once again successful in qualifying, finishing in 3^rd place and giving himself a great chance for his third successive race win. Home favourite Alonso, however, had to settle for 5^th place, behind Lotus driver Kimi Raikkonen. British drivers, apart from Lewis Hamilton, had a relatively poor qualifying session, with Paul di Resta top in 10^th place. Fellow Brit Jenson Button had a poor qualifying campaign, finishing in 14^th place, a full 6 places behind his McLaren rookie teammate Sergio Perez.

 

                The early talk pre-race was all about pit stops and how many each team would do, with much debate over three or perhaps even four stops. As soon as Mark Webber pitted on lap 7, the decision appeared to have been made for four pit stops. With the developments Mercedes have brought to this Grand Prix, there was also much discussion over whether the Mercedes drivers would be capable of keeping the pack behind them. This was particularly important after the dismal performance of the Mercedes from pole last time out. The start of the race was certainly better for Rosberg from pole than Bahrain, as he led away for the first few laps. Hamilton, on the other hand, was instantly swamped by both Vettel and Alonso, falling back behind the pair of them by the end of the first sector. Whilst Rosberg may have led, he was certainly not pulling away from the lead group, causing a six car queue for the early laps. The first round of pit stops reshuffled the order slightly, with Rosberg maintaining the lead after a tight battle with Vettel, only for Alonso to split the pair of them after his stop. Alonso then went on to take the lead a few laps later, causing Rosberg to lose a further two places on the same lap. The indication was very much that the Mercedes were once again struggling to compete for race pace. This was illustrated by Lewis Hamilton, who at one point was fighting for 15^th place with a Williams, causing several exasperated exchanges on the radio. He continued to have a disappointing afternoon, finishing 12^th.

                In the second half of the race, both Ferraris and the Lotus of Kimi Raikkonen appeared to get stronger as the Red Bull of Sebastian Vettel and the Mercedes faded. Raikkonen’s claim to the race win was strengthened once it was realised that he planned on stopping one fewer times than the Ferraris, forcing Alonso to push harder to attempt to widen the gap. Felipe Massa, having a rather undramatic but successful race, had managed to get himself from his qualifying spot of 9^th, to 2^nd, by the end of the 2^nd stops. Whilst he had to relinquish his 2^nd place to Raikkonen after the final stops, a strong 3^rd place is certainly something he would have settled for at the beginning. Home boy Alonso, however, could not be touched, eventually opening up a gap of 12 seconds to the rest of the field, and comfortably taking the victory at the Spanish Grand Prix. As with Bahrain, the crowd were treated to a final few laps battle, this time between Rosberg and Paul di Resta, for the 6^th spot, which Rosberg eventually took. An incredibly disappointing end to a promising day for the Mercedes team, who will have to seriously re-think their race approach for Monaco.

 

                Alonso’s win at the Spanish Grand Prix has re-ignited the title chase this year, after a mini-period of Vettel and Red Bull dominance. Whilst this race was neither as controversial, nor as eventful as the Bahrain Grand Prix, there was much within it that implied that we have an incredibly competitive championship this year. With the ultimate drivers’ circuit of Monaco up next, there is much more than just pride for the protagonists this season to fight for.