Summer Transfer Window Closes: The Start of a Worrying Trend?

Transfer deadline day. The footballing equivalent to a crowded London marketplace mixed with a Glasgow pub brawl. With perhaps more bloodshed.

Some believe that the crescendo to the summer window merits a day off work. Though I am not quite of that mindset, I can't help but feel a strange sense of satisfaction watching the attempts of TV presenters to explain the chaos that will be occurring at 92 different locations across the Football League clubs, and countless more around the rest of the world. Millions are spent on the 1st September, some more wisely than others.

In recent years, as fees have escalated, the amount spent on this sacred day has risen exponentially. As a result, the panic-buying that is witnessed every years multiplies in cost to club owners across the country. On the other hand, some chief executives earn their pay packet on this day, as we have also witnessed some of the most successful transfers on this day. Wayne Rooney's £24m transfer to Manchester United in 2004 and Ashley Cole's 2006 move across London to Chelsea are good examples of this, and we will see plenty more in the coming years. And this is what makes deadline day so special.

So who has been guilty of panic-buying in recent years? A list of just some of the most high profile ones is below:

Andy van der Meyde - Inter Milan to Everton (£2m) - 20 apps/0 goals (2005 - 2009)
Xisco - Deportivo la Coruna to Newcastle United (£5.7m) - 9 apps/1 goal (2008 - 2013)
Roman Pavlyuchenko - Spartak Moscow to Tottenham Hotspur (£14m) - 78 apps/21 goals (2008 - 2012)
Dimitar Berbatov - Tottenham Hotspur to Manchester United (£30m) - 108 apps/48 goals (2009 - 2012)
Robinho - Real Madrid to Manchester City (£32.5m) - 41 apps/14 goals (2009 - 2011)
Paul Konchesky - Fulham to Liverpool (£4m) - 15 apps/0 goals (2010 - 2011)
Andre Santos - Fenerbahce to Arsenal (£5m) - 25 apps/3 goals (2011 - 2013)
Javi Garcia - Benfica to Manchester City (£16m) - 48 apps/2 goals (2012 - 2014)
Marouane Fellaini - Everton to Manchester United (£27m) - 17 apps/ 0 goals (2013 - current)

2014
This year's scramble for final additions has thrown up a few interesting transactions, and a worrying trend. With the Financial Fair Play regulations threatening to impact on a club's European involvement over the coming seasons, chief execs are looking for more ways to manipulate the system. We have seen clubs like Paris Saint Germain and Manchester City come acropper in their attempts to sign off enormous sponsorship deals to circumnavigate the regulations. While that could be deemed unfair, the current trend is going to be impossible to stop.

Deadline day has always been about the big names, the big transfers and the big money. However, this year we have seen a dramatic increase in the number of loan deals with an option to buy the following year. While this may appear on the surface to be foolhardy, as it always seems beneficial to tie the big names down to permanent deals, it may actually prove to be another shrewd move by chief execs to stay within the FFP regulations. With Manchester United having already spent in excess of £85m, the deal for Radamel Falcao would have taken the club far beyond the break-even necessary to avoid sanction from UEFA had it been permanent. However, with the option to defer payment for 12 months, the club can now rebuild its finances before having to fork out an additional sum. Similar deals for the likes of Alvaro Negredo and Javier Hernandez demonstrate that this trend seems set to continue.

The reason this trend is worrying? Call me old-fashioned, but I liked the thrill of the big signing. I remember staying up all night to watch the 2009 summer deadline day, which saw Manchester United sign Dimitar Berbatov for a British transfer record £30m, only for newly Arab-backed Manchester City to outdo them with the coup of Robinho minutes later for £32.5m. Though both eventually turned out to be flops, knowing that your club owns the player involved is exciting, while renting one is less so. If this is set to replace the traditional transfer deadline day, it will make the whole day a little less climactic, killing some of the fun that the broadcasters spend so long trying to instil.

Should this continue, the bloodshed and chaos we have become used to will become less of a pub brawl and more of an orderly queue of clubs, waiting their turn. A lot more safe, but a lot less exciting.

Premier League 2013/2014: So Did The Fixtures Mean Anything? (Title Race)

Those of you who have been following my blog (and I thank you for it - I know it's been irregular), will possibly recall some posts I did about nine months ago about the newly announced fixtures for the 2013/2014 Premier League season, and how they may affect the three main races: the title, 4th place and relegation. I did a post on each, and I will now review this as the season draws to a close, and give an indication of who is now the favourite based on the final four fixtures.

Beginning with the title race, I (wrongly as it turned out) assumed that the winner would almost inevitably come from one of the three teams that have shared the title for the last 10 years: Manchester United, Manchester City and Chelsea. Though we now know we need to throw Liverpool into the mix, it is worth looking back over the fixtures, and seeing just how right (or often, wrong) I was.

Strangely, based on the fixtures I picked Manchester United to retain their title. I identified the three key times of the season, looking at the five fixtures at the beginning, middle and run-in. In reality, United have massively underperformed in both of the beginning and middle fixtures. Though they started well, with an emphatic 4-1 victory away at Swansea City, their form tailed off dramatically. A boring 0-0 draw with then-title rivals Chelsea was followed by two devastating defeats, away at Liverpool and Manchester City. The Manchester derby was particularly damaging, both for United's title chances, and David Moyes's credibility, as the Red Devils were comprehensively outplayed (the first of many times that would occur this season). Though I did not select United to start the season particularly well, I did not expect them to collapse quite so spectacularly.

Manchester City's start was considerably less tricky, and as a result saw them post a more healthy total after 5 games. Beginning the season with a 4-0 demolition of Newcastle, City were shocked by newly-promoted Cardiff City in a topsy-turvy game. Despite taking the lead, Cardiff came from behind to record one of the surprise results of the season, winning 3-2. This defeat evidently affected the Blues, as they laboured to a 2-0 victory in their next home game against Hull. A 0-0 draw at Stoke, historically a tough place to go, left City lagging behind slightly. However, the resounding victory over United sent out a real message into their title rivals and reinstated City's place towards the top of the table.

The final contenders I covered, Chelsea, began the season with a comfortable home win over Hull City, with fans rejoicing in the return of the 'Special One'. Though the fixtures changed slightly to accommodate the UEFA Super Cup, meaning that Chelsea picked up another home win over Aston Villa, that bore draw with Manchester United checked the rhythm of the Blues. This was further disrupted by the 1-0 defeat suffered at Goodison Park against a resurgent and difficult Everton. However, the 2-0 win over Fulham was the perfect tonic for their difficult period and meant that Chelsea could regain the momentum lost through their 100% home record.

I predicted that of those opening 5, it would be Manchester City that performed best, with Chelsea having to travel to Everton and Manchester United, and United having a horrible run of fixtures (causing David Moyes to have a meltdown about them - would it have happened with Fergie in charge?).  After the opening 5, I was still fairly confident that surprises like Cardiff's win against City was an example of teams bedding in and learning the ropes under a new manager, and I was confident that form would pick up as the season went on. Whilst I was not particularly surprised with the defeats United had away at City and Liverpool, the manner of them was shocking, and it looked like they would be the side most in need of adjustment.

End of First 5: Manchester United - 7pts (8th), Manchester City - 10pts (3rd), Chelsea - 10pts (4th)

To be fair to United and Moyes, whilst they looked defensively suspect, particularly at home, their away for has been impressive throughout the season, and eventually they began to improve in the mid-season period. Traditionally, the games over Christmas are where United really begin to gain momentum, so their rather fortunate five fixtures helped them considerably. Looking between the 14th December and New Year's Day, United began with a winnable tie at Aston Villa. With their excellent away form, win they did, and comfortably - 3-0. Three further victories, a 3-1 win at home to West Ham, a 3-2 come from behind win at Hull and an edgy 1-0 win over Norwich at Carrow Road saw United begin to string together results and gain momentum. However, once again their abysmal home form came back to bite them. Having already lost to Everton, Newcastle and West Brom at Old Trafford by this point, United's fortess of the past decades had been eradicated. This was proven once again with another dismal display at home to Tottenham, where goals from the rejuvenated Emmanuel Adebayor and the excellent Christian Eriksen gave Spurs a deserved 2-1 win and denting United's title prospects further.

Man City's mid-season fixture list was dauting, with visits from Arsenal and Liverpool, as well as a tough tie at Swansea. I said in my earlier post that this may be the making or the breaking of City's season, and if so, it certainly made it. A 6-3 demolition of Arsenal in an incredible game at the Etihad saw City continue their unbelievable goalscoring form. Though they were winning, they were having to do it the hard way. A 4-2 away win at Fulham saw the Blues chuck a 2-0 lead away, before recovering to claim the three points. With similarly free-scoring Liverpool the next to travel to City, they could ill-afford more slip-ups. In a testing and absorbing contest, a Simon Mignolet error handed Alvaro Negredo the decisive goal in a 2-1 victory for the Blues. Two further wins at home to Crystal Palace and away at Swansea saw City claim maximum points from the mid-season and keep themselves very much in the hunt for the silverware.

Chelsea had a similarly difficult run of games, but they started with a comfortable (but not too easy) 2-1 win at home to a resurgent Crystal Palace. Mourinho's tactics ensured that they left their next game at the Emirates with their goal untroubled, but too often left them toothless upfront in a boring 0-0 draw. The lack of goals has been a theme throughout this season for Chelsea, and this was proven with the 1-0 win at Swansea, where Samuel Eto'o missed several golden opportunities to make the scoreline more emphatic. However, winning is winning, and a huge victory in the crunch game at home to Liverpool ensured that Chelsea remained well in the title race approaching the New Year. A dominant 3-0 win at the difficult St Mary's Stadium in Southampton saw Chelsea move within two points of the top spot, having taken 13 from the 15 points available in the period.

Here I was surprised. I predicted that it would be Manchester United that performed best of the three, as their fixtures seemed markedly easier than either those of Chelsea or City. However, it is probably unfair to castigate too much, as all three sides had excellent mid-season periods, with 12 out of 15 being the worst return. City's demolition of Arsenal sent out a warning shot to the rest of the Premier League that they were ready to fight their corner to the end, whilst Chelsea were quietly creeping up behind. By this point, United had already lost too much ground to put them in the title shake-up, and their efforts were now focused on claiming that all important 4th place. If they continued the way they managed in the mid-season, this was certainly possible.

End of Middle 5: Manchester United - 34pts (7th), Manchester City - 44pts (2nd), Chelsea - 43pts (3rd)

So what happened as the season reached its climax? Well, United continued to be consistently inconsistent, with their away form remaining the best in the division. However, their home form continues to be their undoing, and they seem incapable of competing in the big games. Heavy 3-0 defeats in successive games against Liverpool and Manchester City followed the 3-1 loss to Chelsea, ultimately ending United's push for a Champions League place. How badly this will affect the future of the club remains to be seen, but irrespective of what Moyes says, I truly believe that it will have a negative impact on the calibre of player United can attract. As a result, I would not be surprised to see a lot of new faces at United over the summer, but few will be huge headline names.

Manchester City, rocked by injuries to key personnel at times, have gone off the boil at a critical moment. Despite looking unstoppable at times in the mid-season, cruising past Spurs, Norwich and Arsenal with huge scores, the injury to Sergio Aguero has halted their goalscoring prowess. They, like United have failed in the big games, with a pair of defeats against Chelsea being followed by an incredibly damaging 3-2 defeat away at Liverpool (marked as a title decider). Wednesday's draw with Sunderland takes the title well and truly out of their hands, and they now need someone to do them a favour if they are to reclaim the trophy they won two years ago.

Chelsea have continued in the vein they have seen all season - winning games, but not scoring goals. As such, they are within touching distance of leaders Liverpool, but without a particularly good goal difference or any games with spectacular scorelines. Though they would now be favourite of the three I picked to win the title from here, it is interesting consider the three in the race and how I believe it will pan out as we head into the home straight.

5 To Go: Liverpool (1st), Chelsea (2nd), Manchester City (3rd)

The real surprise of the season was the rise of Liverpool. Their potent attacking force has made the Anfield side difficult to stop this campaign, as proven by their monumental home victories against all of their title rivals thus far. However, two damaging results ensured that the title would be making its way back to Manchester for the fourth successive year. Chelsea's brilliant, if a little dull, victory at Anfield was followed by an incredible collapse at Crystal Palace, handing momentum, and ultimately the trophy, back to City.

City, after their defeat at Liverpool, and the 2-2 draw with Sunderland, seemed rank outsiders for the title. However, 6 successive wins, including tough away ties at The Eagles and Goodison Park, a traditional bogey ground, meant that a final day coast at home to West Ham handed them the crown.

Jose Mourinho's Chelsea, having beaten the Reds, shot themselves in the foot, dropping points at home to Sunderland and Norwich, wrecking what promised to be a golden return for the Special One.

At the end of one of the closest championship battles for years, we could have seen the trophy back in the North West - but not in the place you would expect. However, one of the most exciting races in recent memory promises to be even more so next year, with free-spending Chelsea and Manchester City likely to be joined by Manchester United and Arsenal, if they can avoid injuries. It will be incredibly interesting to see if Liverpool can marry European football, particularly Champions League, with a decent domestic campaign. We have seen sides struggle to compete for multiple honours, and it will be a real test of Brendan Rodgers' small squad next year.

Premier League 2013/2014: So Did The Fixtures Mean Anything? (Relegation)

Those of you who have been following my blog (and I thank you for it - I know it's been irregular), will possibly recall some posts I did about nine months ago about the newly announced fixtures for the 2013/2014 Premier League season, and how they may affect the three main races: the title, 4th place and relegation. I did a post on each, and I will now review this as the season draws to a close, and give an indication of who is now the favourite based on the final four fixtures.

This third and final post in the series focuses on the battle to avoid the dreaded drop to the Championship. As I am looking at 7 different teams, this post will be a little less in depth than the other two, but hopefully just as informative and interesting. To find the other posts, click on the links below:

Title race
Champions League battle

First 5:

In my post nine months ago, I said that the relegation battle will involve the most teams, with a range of 7 potentially involved. Having looked at the opening fixtures of the teams involved, I picked my bottom part of the table to be: Newcastle, Sunderland, Hull, Stoke, Crystal Palace, Cardiff and Aston Villa. After surprise results like Aston Villa's victory over Arsenal and Cardiff's win at home to Manchester City, this is how the bottom of the table lined up after five fixtures:

West Brom - 5pts (14th), West Ham - 5pts (15th), Cardiff - 5pts (16th), Norwich - 4pts (17th), Fulham - 4pts (18th), Crystal Palace - 3pts (19th) and Sunderland - 1pt (20th)

So basically, I was way off. I didn't even factor in West Brom, West Ham, Norwich or Fulham on the fixtures, meaning that  Stoke (10th), Hull (11th) Newcastle (12th) and most surprisingly Aston Villa (13th) were not even in the list. Despite this, five games can help someone's season, but it cannot decide whether they stay up and go down (until you get to the final five of course!). As a result, I was not too concerned with my lack of accuracy, but the second check would perhaps give us a better indication of how wrong I was!

Middle 5:

The middle 5 (taken between the dates of 14th December and 1st January - the most congested period of the season) would hopefully provide me with an opportunity to reclaim some lost pride. Taken purely on these 5 fixtures, I came up with a mini table to show which teams will take the most points from this period. This would contribute to the table, but would not necessarily indicate who is destined for the drop. Based on the fixtures, I predicted that the mini table of 7 would look like this: Sunderland, Stoke, Newcastle, Aston Villa, Cardiff, Hull and Crystal Palace. In reality, it looked like this:

Newcastle (7pts), Sunderland (6pts), Hull (5pts), Stoke (5pts), Aston Villa (4pts), Cardiff (4pts), Crystal Palace (4pts)

Again, I was wrong. Though in my defence, not quite as badly wrong as I had initially been. Of the bottom three, I accurately predicted two, and managed to suggest that the two North East clubs would be well away from danger when the time came. Nevertheless, if we look at the table as a whole by the time we get to New Year's Day, we see a wholly different complexion: West Brom - 21pts (14th), Norwich - 20pts (15th), Fulham - 19pts (16th), Cardiff - 18pts (17th), Crystal Palace - 17pts (18th), West Ham - 15pts (19th), Sunderland - 14pts (20th). Whether this means my test is not as accurate as those for the Champions League or the title race (although read those to see the issues I have had!), I am not sure, but certainly it is some way from my initial expectations at the beginning of the season.

So what happened since?

Well, a lot. Two of the bottom three at that time ended completely safe and free of danger, with Crystal Palace pulling off a master stroke in hiring Tony Pulis (whose appointment I actually disagreed with at the time but shhhhh!) and West Ham relying on Big Sam Allardyce to get them out of it, which he duly did. Sunderland pulled off the greatest of great escapes, with the 2-2 draw at the Etihad, sparking the most incredible of results. Away wins at Chelsea and Manchester United, along with a home success against West Brom ensured that the Black Cats steered themselves out of what seemed an impossible situation with one match to spare. With Fulham and Cardiff unable to drag themselves from their hole (meaning that Felix Magath suffered his first relegation as a manager), it was Norwich that bore the brunt of the Sunderland escape. Their incredibly tough end to the season ultimately condemned them to the Championship, but it was the lack of fight in games involving sides around them that cost the Canaries their place in the top tier.

In the final five fixtures, I expected this to be the mini league table: Stoke, Aston Villa, Cardiff, Crystal Palace, Hull, Sunderland and Newcastle. However, incredible runs for Sunderland and Crystal Palace meant it ended like this:

Sunderland (12pts), Crystal Palace (8pts), Stoke City (7pts), Aston Villa (4pts), Cardiff (4pts), Newcastle (3pts), Hull (1pt)

And my prediction?

Overall, I predicted that all three of the promoted sides would return to the Championship based on the fixtures. However, it is almost never that this actually occurs, and this is another example. Crystal Palace's inspired managerial alteration kept them clear of danger, whilst Hull's consistency ensured that they would have a cup final day, along with a Premier League place to treasure. Other than Cardiff, I didn't even include the two sides that ended up going down, as I believed them to be relatively safe!

Final table: Newcastle - 49pts (10th), Crystal Palace - 45pts (11th), Sunderland - 38pts (14th), Aston Villa - 38pts (15th), Hull - 37pts (16th), Cardiff - 30pts (20th)

So in the end, an interesting, but inconsistent test. Fixtures are a good indicator of form, which is a good indicator of performance, but it doesn't always work out like that. With external affairs able to alter that in the flip of a switch (the ownership debacle at Leeds is the perfect example of this), there is only so much that looking at the fixtures can do. Nevertheless, it does go to show that whilst the fixture organisers attempt to be objective and unbiased, they inevitably disadvantage some teams more than others.

Premier League 2013/2014: So Did The Fixtures Mean Anything? (Champions League)

Those of you who have been following my blog (and I thank you for it - I know it's been irregular), will possibly recall some posts I did about nine months ago about the newly announced fixtures for the 2013/2014 Premier League season, and how they may affect the three main races: the title, 4th place and relegation. I did a post on each, and I will now review this as the season draws to a close, and give an indication of who is now the favourite based on the final four fixtures.

Having already done my post on the title race, which you can find here, we now move onto the race for 4th place. The Champions League has become the be all and end all for sides in the competition, with the financial benefits of qualifying massive. As sides like Manchester City and Chelsea both know, it also offers you the possibility to sign top quality players, as it is seen as the elite club competition in Europe, and possibly the world, and certainly players from around the world travel to play in the Champions League. As a result, a host of clubs compete in the Premier League for the coveted 4th spot, and this season of all seasons has seen a monumental scrap for the spot, which still continues.

Before the season began, I predicted that the two North London clubs would dominate this race this season, with Liverpool following closely behind. I said that Everton had an outside shot, but it was unlikely at best. How wrong was I? Whilst I got three of the teams competing right, Tottenham have never looked comfortable competing for that spot, with Liverpool focused on a much higher prize. As a result of this, and Manchester United's decline, it has been left to Everton and Arsenal to contest it. With Arsene Wenger's 15 year consecutive qualification for Europe's premier competition hanging in the balance, the end of this season promises to be intriguing.

Similarly to the previous title race post, I will review the importance of the first five, last five, and the busiest period of fixtures before making a comparison my prediction with reality. Arsenal began in the worst possible way, losing their opening game at The Emirates 3-1 to Aston Villa. With fans immediately disillusioned with Arsenal and Wenger, Arsenal fought back, winning their next game against Fulham, before overcoming fierce rivals Tottenham. In a niggly and feisty contest, an Olivier Giroud goal was enough to secure a vital three points for Arsenal against their closest rivals. They also won the following games against Sunderland and Stoke to fight back from the early disappointment.

Tottenham, who spent over £100m on players over the summer, began the season well with one of their newest signings Roberto Soldado scoring a penalty to beat newly promoted Crystal Palace. Another 1-0 win at home to Swansea set Spurs up for the North London derby, but they could not maintain that early momentum. Whilst they may have been knocked down, they fought back, winning their next games against Norwich and Cardiff to put themselves back among their rivals.

Liverpool, the outsiders for this race before the start of the season, started their campaign with an edgy 1-0 home win against Stoke, before a similar victory against Aston Villa at Villa Park. A third successive 1-0 win against their fiercest rivals Manchester United, catapulted the Reds up to the summit. They would not be there for long, however. A hectic 2-2 draw in South Wales, which saw ex-Scouser Jonjo Shelvey both help and hinder Liverpool, was followed by a damaging 1-0 defeat at home to Southampton. Whilst they remained the outsiders, they had shown that they had the potential to take the fight to their London counterparts (little did we know that was the start of a most incredible season for the Scousers).

For Everton, their season began rather unspectacularly, only managing a draw at Carrow Road against Norwich. Two successive 0-0 draws against West Brom and Cardiff gave Everton fans no indication that this would be a year where they would be challenging for European football. However, the next result turned the form book on its head. Though traditionally a difficult place to go, Goodison Park had not been a fortress in the opening few games of 2013/2014, but beating Chelsea 1-0 with a goal from Steven Naismith. This victory clearly had an impact on Everton, who then picked up their first away win of the campaign, with a 3-2 victory at Upton Park.

I had predicted that it would be difficult to separate the two North London clubs, with the two Merseysiders close behind. As it turned out, this wasn't far off. This race had some way to run, and it wasn't about to be decided any time soon.

After first 5: Arsenal - 12pts (1st), Tottenham - 12pts (2nd), Liverpool - 10pts (5th), Everton - 9pts (6th)

As with the title race post, the mid-point measure is between the 14th of December and New Year's Day. Arsenal began the period in disastrous fashion, being dismantled by the free-scoring Manchester City at the Etihad 6-3. If it's any consolation to Arsenal fans, they surely would not have to make a trip quite as difficult again during the season (or would they?). The games didn't get any easier, with Chelsea the next visitors to The Emirates, with a boring 0-0 draw the end result. After these, a solid win was required - and that is just what they got. A 3-1 victory at West Ham signalled the end of Arsenal's rocky spell, with a 1-0 win at Newcastle backing this up. They began the New Year in good form too, beating Cardiff 2-0 in comfortable fashion to re-establish themselves in the race. Such was their good form, they remained in the title race at this point.

For Tottenham, on the other hand, fourth was looking the more realistic aspiration. Like Arsenal, Spurs were destroyed by a rival at the beginning of the mid-season, going down 5-0 at home to Liverpool, a result that ultimately cost Andre Villas-Boas his job. The new man at the helm, ex-Spurs midfielder Tim Sherwood, returned Emmanuel Adebayor to the starting line-up, and the Togolese striker immediately repaid the faith we a series of important goals. Two at St Mary's led Tottenham to a valuable 3-2 victory over the Saints before another disappointing result in a 1-1 draw at home to West Brom. Despite 4th beginning to slip from their grasp, Spurs rallied, winning the final two games in the series, at home to Stoke and away at Old Trafford to put themselves firmly back in contention.

Liverpool, like Arsenal, remained fighting for a prize beyond many's expectations. That 5-0 demolition of Spurs sent a strong message out not only to their top 4 rivals, but those directly above them as well. However, from being up and fighting for the league lead, two defeats would have the Merseysiders back into fourth by the end of the month. Having beaten Cardiff 3-1 at Anfield, Liverpool travelled to the seemingly inpenetrable Etihad Stadium to face off against Manchester City. Despite dominating the game for periods, Liverpool lost the game 2-1, denting the confidence going into their game against Chelsea. A second 2-1 defeat in three days in that game put the Reds very much on the back foot, and required a response. The 2-0 victory at home to Hull was the perfect tonic for Liverpool, and provided them with momentum going into the second half of the year.

Everton, despite their slow start, were maintaining an excellent record under Roberto Martinez, and were certainly still in the race for 4th place by the time the half way point arrived. Victories against Fulham and Swansea were knocked by a hugely shocking result, as Everton were beaten for the first time at Goodison Park this season by a Sunderland penalty. A response was necessary, and one was delivered. A morale-boosting win against high-flying Southampton was followed by a good 1-1 draw at The Britannia Stadium, one of the toughest trips on the calendar to maintain their good start.

I predicted that it would be Spurs that benefitted from their run of fixtures, and it was they, Arsenal and Everton that took the most points (10), but it was extremely close. There was no doubt that this would be a race that would go right to the wire, perhaps even to the final day.

After middle 5: Arsenal - 45pts (1st), Tottenham - 37pts (6th), Liverpool - 39pts (4th), Everton - 38pts (5th)

With the season drawing to a close, the final 5 can be all important. Arsenal, who had come under increasing pressure from a resurgent Everton side, had a good finish, winning all five of their final games. This ultimately secured the final Champions League spot for the Gunners, whose FA Cup Final victory capped another successful season for Wenger's side. However, had they not had a series of significant injuries, it could have been the serious prize. Everton, however, went off the boil at just the wrong time. Winning just two of their five games, and losing away at Southampton, and most surprisingly, at home to Crystal Palace, ruined their season.

This left the final Europa League spot as the one remaining unanswered question. The competition between Tottenham and Manchester United seemed likely to go to the wire. However, United's collapse, along with the sacking of manager David Moyes, handed that 'prize' to Spurs. In the final 5, United had 2 wins and 2 defeats, with Sunderland's incredible win at Old Trafford the lowlight. Spurs on the other hand, took 10 points from their final 5, with wins against Fulham, Stoke and Aston Villa to secure that place.

End of season: Arsenal - 79pts (4th), Everton - 72pts (5th), Tottenham - 69pts (6th), Manchester United - 64pts (7th)

So what of my prediction?

Tottenham, Arsenal, Liverpool, Everton... Hmmmmm - that may need some work. Oh well, there's always next year, when a resurgent Manchester United will be looking to break back into the top 4, and maybe take the top step itself. And can Arsenal build on their cup final momentum, or will they continue to be susceptible to injuries?

Who Makes It? On The Plane To Brazil

Just under a week until we know who to pin our childhood excitement on, however inevitable failure at the quarter final stage appears. The next in a long line of decisions for Roy Hodgson is who exactly has earned the place on the plane? His recent comments that a last dash of form wouldn't change his mind may be true, but it is worth examining those that seem set to miss out unless they do something spectacular with two to go in the Premier League season.

Goalkeepers
Obviously Joe Hart, but which other two deserve a place on the bench? For me, it is down to three for the two spots. Celtic's Fraser Forster has once again been solid for the Scottish champions this season, as he has for the past few campaigns. The main criticism levied against the ex-Newcastle man is that his abilities are overplayed due to the favourable clean sheet statistics, thanks mostly to Celtic's huge superiority in the league. However, having seen his performances against Barcelona both this season and last, I take such criticism with a pinch of salt. Reliable when called upon, I think he would be my number two.

So who for the last place? For me, despite the talk of youngster Jack Butland making the side, it has to be between West Brom's Ben Foster and Norwich's John Ruddy. The statistics demonstrate how marginal it is. While Ruddy's 11 clean sheets betters that achieved by Foster, who has only managed 7, the Norwich stopper has conceded 6 goals more than his West Brom counterpart. Perhaps that says more about the defence in front of him than his ability, but nevertheless a difficult decision. However, these, and any other stats like saves (which Ruddy also leads) are somewhat skewed by the fact that Ben Foster only managed 5 appearances in the first half of the season, with Boaz Myhill being preferred to the Englishman. Going purely on my gut feeling, I would take Ruddy. He is an excellent shot stopper who has earned the opportunity. Not that Foster hasn't, but his previous experience and mistakes unfortunately count against him.

Defenders
Now it gets interesting. With neither of the usual stalwarts of Rio Ferdinand or John Terry available for selection, a little more reshuffling is needed in the World Cup backline. Beginning at left back, it is a case of two places, three candidates. The left back present in the last three world cups, Ashley Cole, is not assured of his place this time around, having been robbed of his club spot by Cesar Azpilicueta. With the Chelsea defender being talked about as over the hill, it offers flying Everton wing back Leighton Baines the chance to cement that first team spot. Though the Toffees player has not been as effective this year as previous campaigns, he remains our best left back, and I would certainly take him (assuming his home sickness means he can go!).

This is one of the positions where a late run will make all the difference. Despite being sensational in the early to mid season, Southampton's Luke Shaw has flown somewhat under the radar in the last few weeks. Unfortunately for the 18 year old, this has happened just as Cole has returned to the fore for Chelsea in the big games in the Champions League and Premier League. For me, I would take Shaw. Cole has been an excellent servant of England, but his time is over, and it is time to allow the next generation of England players to take the main stage. With Baines into his early 30's, he is unlikely to keep the left back shirt for long, meaning that Shaw is the most likely to hold down the place in the long term.

Going into the centre of the field, it is again tough. I think that Gary Cahill and Phil Jagielka have already booked their places on the plane. This is not necessarily as a result of any performances this year, though Cahill has been exceptional this season in particular, but the partnership that the pair have created at the heart of England's defence. Outside of this pair, who is there? Thankfully not Matt Upson, but the likes of Joleon Lescott, Phil Jones, Chris Smalling, Steven Caulker and Ryan Shawcross have all been mentioned in relation to the contest. Of these, I would take Phil Jones, and maybe surprisingly, Steven Caulker. Lescott has not played enough games this season, while Ryan Shawcross and Chris Smalling are about as consistent as simulation decisions.

Right back is a little more confirmed. Though Liverpool's Jon Flanagan has had a good season, he is not ready for the World Cup. As a result, his teammate Glen Johnson and Tottenham's Kyle Walker seem shoo-ins for the squad. Both have had anonymous seasons, but with relatively little competition, it is certainly the position that England are struggling for now.

Midfielders
Here I will split this into central midfielders and wingers. Beginning with central midfielders, with Steven Gerrard's incredible season this year, he is impossible to rule out. Equally, exceptional years for Southampton's Adam Lallana and Jordan Henderson mean that I would take them too. That leaves just two places. So who is left?

Chelsea's Frank Lampard has had a difficult season, with sporadic appearances for Jose Mourinho's Chelsea, and being less effective going forward than he has been in previous years. Nevetheless, his England pedigree means that he cannot be ignored for consideration. Equally, injury has hit Jack Wilshere's England charge this year, with his appearances for Arsenal limited to a handful. Manchester United, despite a horrific season, have a number of English candidates, and Michael Carrick is certainly one of them. The defensive midfielder has struggled this year, after a number of excellent years for the Red Devils. Manchester City's James Milner, often maligned for being dull and boring, is perhaps the most consistent and hardworking player of the lot. What he lacks in flair, he more than makes up for in tenacity. However, his first team appearances have also been limited with the arrival of Jesus Navas. Ross Barkley, the Everton playmaker has shown desire, drive and innovation, but does his youth and inexperience count against him in such a hotly contested position? Tom Cleverley? No. Just no. Too far.

So which two get the nod? Though I would love to see Barkley lighting up the Maracana in July, I just wouldn't take the risk. There are too many experienced and seasoned campaigners to take the young Evertonian, but his time will come. At the other end of the scale, I would discount Frank Lampard. Though he can take a good penalty (always an important consideration with England), his best days are behind him, and he is no longer the 20 goals a season player we are used to seeing. It is so difficult to separate the three remaining, but I would take Carrick and Milner. Both have experienced World Cup football before, and both have the drive and work ethic to succeed in tough conditions. I feel Wilshere, with his well publicised petulance, would be far too easily wound up by the likes of Pepe and the South Americans with their diving to risk taking. Who knows, he may end up swearing at more crowds? Carrick offers reliability, while Milner offers stability in the midfield, which will be essential when playing sides with pace.

Now, to wingers. It's a shame Theo Walcott will not be on the plane, as he more than many deserves the opportunity after a lightning fast start to the season. However, the winger to most benefit from this has to be Raheem Sterling. The 19 year-old Liverpudlian has performed beyond everyone's expectations in the second half of the season, putting defences to the sword and acting as the catalyst for Liverpool's incredible title challenge. He is definitely there. Other than him, it is difficult. No-one else has stood out massively, with Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain and Andros Townsend denied games by both injury and more illustrious teammates. Aaron Lennon has been a regular starter, but has failed to fully take advantage. Similarly, Adam Johnson at Sunderland has attempted to show fight, with a few good mid-season performances. However, he has not been consistent throughout the season. For me, I would take the North London duo of Oxlade-Chamberlain and Lennon. Despite his excellent performances for his country, Townsend has not done enough to win a place throughout the season.

Forwards
Two of these are already sewn up. Wayne Rooney remains United's shining light despite the trials and tribulations, and Daniel Sturridge, behind just Luis Suarez and Yaya Toure, would be my pick for player of the season. So who gets the last two places? It would have been Jay Rodriguez after a phenomenal couple of years, but his horrific injury has cut that dream short. Despite a late run by Andy Carroll, I would take Rickie Lambert and Danny Welbeck. I dislike Welbeck's play in general, as his touch is often abysmal but he works hard. He is just an English Carlos Tevez, but he does have an excellent scoring record for the Three Lions. On the other hand, Lambert more than deserves his place. His power and aerial ability is important, but he is also more than capable of using either foot, and his dead ball delivery is exceptional.

Full Squad

Joe Hart (Manchester City), Fraser Forster (Celtic), John Ruddy (Norwich City)

Leighton Baines (Everton), Luke Shaw (Southampton), Gary Cahill (Chelsea), Phil Jagielka (Everton), Phil Jones (Manchester United), Steven Caulker (Cardiff City), Glen Johnson (Liverpool), Kyle Walker (Tottenham Hotspur)

Steven Gerrard (Liverpool), Adam Lallana (Southampton), Jordan Henderson (Liverpool), Michael Carrick (Manchester United), James Milner (Manchester City), Raheem Sterling (Liverpool), Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain (Arsenal), Aaron Lennon (Tottenham Hotspur)

Wayne Rooney (Manchester United), Daniel Sturridge (Liverpool), Rickie Lambert (Southampton)

Who Has Benefitted From The Managerial Merry-Go-Round?

As per usual, the Premier League has thrown up another season of managerial changes, shock sackings and new heroes. I thought this was a good a time as any, as the footballing world is currently revelling in a rather significant departure this week (if you're a football fan and don't know who I mean, where are you? And if you aren't a football fan, why are you reading this?). Anyway, backroom swaps during the season can have a significant effect on the team, be it positive or negative. This post is designed to look at who has benefitted from these changes, and why that may be. On the opposite side of the coin, I will also look at the teams most negatively effected, and how this has impacted on their season.

Firstly, it is worth showing this table. There have been nine managerial changes, at eight different clubs this season, and the below table shows the points per game (PPG) before and after the switch.

Team	Manager Out (Games)	PPG	Manager In (Games)	PPG
Cardiff City	Malky Mackay (18)	0.94	Ole Gunnar Solskjaer (15)	0.8
Crystal Palace	Ian Holloway (8)	0.38	Tony Pulis (24)	1.63
Fulham	Martin Jol (13)	0.77	Rene Meulensteen (13)	0.77
Fulham	Rene Meulensteen (13)	0.77	Felix Magath (9)	1.11
Norwich City	Chris Hughton (32)	0.97	Neil Adams (3)	0
Swansea City	Michael Laudrup (24)	1	Garry Monk (11)	1.09
Sunderland	Paolo di Canio (5)	0.2	Gus Poyet (27)	1.04
Tottenham Hotspur	Andre Villas Boas (16)	1.69	Tim Sherwood (19)	1.89
West Bromwich Albion	Steve Clarke (16)	0.94	Pepe Mel (13)	0.92

From this table, we can clearly see that some changes have worked, whilst other have spectacularly failed. Of the nine changes, five saw positive changes in terms of points per game (though Garry Monk's is so marginal that I hesitate to rank it alongside Tony Pulis), suggesting that it is very much the luck of the draw as to whether a team can pick themselves up under a new manager. At clubs like Crystal Palace and Sunderland, this has clearly worked, with Pulis and Poyet coming in and revitalising their clubs (ok, Sunderland remain bottom, but we will see later the predicament that they would have been in had di Canio remained). However, Cardiff and West Brom's switches demonstrates that perhaps the grass is not always greener on the other side.

So how would they be doing had they kept their original managers? Here would be the points and position each would have had that been the case:

Spurs - 59pts (6th (NC), -4pts)
Swansea - 35pts (14th (-1), -1pt)
Norwich - 34pts (15th (+1), +2pts)
Cardiff - 33pts (16th (+2), +3pts)
West Brom - 33pts (17th (-1), 0pts)
Fulham - 27pts (18th (+1), -3pts)
Crystal Palace - 13pts (19th (-8), -30pts)
Sunderland - 7pts (20th (NC), -22pts)

As we can see, it is Cardiff and Norwich that would see the benefit of retaining their managers, with both being pulled away from the immediate relegation battle. Certainly not by enough to clear them of trouble altogether, but it would perhaps have given them those vital couple of points they be missing come May. However, as we can see from the stats above in PPG, it is Sunderland and Crystal Palace that have made the best choices in replacing their managers, gaining 22 and 30 points respectively. Further up the table, by keeping Villas Boas, Spurs would find themselves just two points clear of Manchester United, putting them under increasing pressure for the final Europa League place.

So are there any obvious reasons that some teams find it easier to change managers mid season than others? There are two that instantly spring to mind. Firstly, looking at the statistics, it is interesting to note that of those brought in, three were managers from abroad with no managerial experience in the Premier League. Just as a new player will take time to readjust to the tactics and physical nature of the English game, so too a manager will. It is therefore no surprise to find that only one of the four managed to better his predecessor's record (and that was Felix Magath, a man well experienced in European management). Though it seems too self-evident to draw the conclusion that foreign managers with little experience like Ole Gunnar Solskjaer or Pepe Mel will inevitably find it harder than the people they replaced, evidently the boards of Cardiff and West Brom have not learnt that lesson.

Another trend that is discernible from the statistics is that those managers that take over from the previous incumbents having previously been a coach at the club do as well, if not better than the men they served under. Both Tim Sherwood and Garry Monk have recorded better results than their predecessors, with even the beleaguered and maligned Rene Meulensteen equalling that of Martin Jol. This implies that there is much in understanding the players and club, especially if you have some history and passion for the institution. I maintain that this is why Sir Alex Ferguson continued to have success at Manchester United with a frankly poor squad last year (not forgetting a good dose of Fergie time!), and why David Moyes struggled. It will be incredibly interesting to see if Ryan Giggs, being an ex-coach and player at the club for over 20 years, will continue this trend. It seems silly to judge him on the final four games, but should he retain control into next season, it will be incredibly interesting to look at his record versus that of Moyes. If the stats I have found are anything to go on, United will see a distinct incline in results.

The second point I can imagine making a considerable difference is if the group inherited by the new man is full of egos or destructive personalities. Even one difficult player can ruin a new manager's authority (although it must be said that the more adversarial managers like Felix Magath and Tony Pulis would probably succeed regardless!). Interestingly, it is at Cardiff, where Craig Bellamy remains a strong presence in the dressing room, and West Brom and Fulham (Dimitar Berbatov), clubs used to being in the top half rather than fighting against relegation, where issues have come. Clubs like Crystal Palace are, in my opinion, much more open to a new manager, as they are relatively inexperienced at Premier League level, and seem willing to learn from a manager more accustomed to the league. This is somewhat undermined by the success of Gus Poyet (although he was taking over from Paolo di Canio, who was frankly mental!) and that of Garry Monk and Tim Sherwood, though their progress has been previously explained.

It is therefore interesting to examine the clubs that have stuck with their managers, despite the pressure. West Ham, Stoke and Aston Villa are prime examples of this, as at one time or another, all have come in for stick. However, all have managed to avoid trouble (largely), with only Aston Villa with any realistic chance of being dragged into the relegation scrap, but even that is remote. Both West Ham and Stoke have seen remarkable runs of results after their boards publically backed their managers, implying that stability does make a difference to on-field performances. Ultimately, they have reaped their rewards, but these instances remain in the minority and something to applaud. Unfortunately, football remains caught in the grip of short-termism, and nothing says this better than the dismissal of Moyes. Everyone has covered every point in intricate detail, so I will neglect from doing so, but I feel confident in saying that the former Everton man would have found his second season much more comfortable than his first.

As for my question posed in the title, those that have most obviously benefitted from the managerial merry-go-round have been those that have replaced sooner rather than later, and those that have brought in a manager experienced in the ways of the Premier League or with some passionate historical link to the club. Alternatively, the other victors have been those sides that have stuck with their managers through the hard times. As I have said though, as Moyes' sacking shows, I just don't see that being a common theme in the overly-financialised game that is modern football.

Cardiff's Complaint: Does James Bond Wear A Baseball Cap?

Well, the season just got strange. Rumours of underhand tactics and espionage have engulfed the Premier League in the last few days, with Cardiff manager Ole Gunnar Solskjaer accusing Crystal Palace, and indirectly Tony Pulis, of stealing information that led to his side's embarrassing 3-0 home defeat at the hands of their then-relegation rivals. With an official complaint now hanging over the London club, this saga threatens to rumble on long into the summer, and that is the last thing football needs. I must start this with a disclaimer - below are my opinions. I have little to no facts about this case, and this piece is merely to explain my take on the story as it has emerged in the press thus far.

The last time I remember an espionage saga in sport, it took several months for an independent commission to check, double and triple check whether McLaren had stolen confidential information from their Ferrari rivals in the F1 championship in 2007. Very much like I think this will, it ended up ruining an extremely competitive season, tarring all teams with the same brush and casting a shadow of doubt on the whole sport.

However, do Crystal Palace and Tony Pulis have a case to answer? Cardiff allege that Iain Moody, Crystal Palace's sporting director, and a former director of recruitment at the Welsh club, phoned a former colleague, performance analyst Enda Barron, on 3rd April to ask if he could help him obtain the team for the match against Palace. The day before the match (4th April), Moody had apparently been able to obtain the starting line-up from another source. Though Moody and Barron directly deny any and all allegations, the evidence has begun to stack up.

Here is where Tony Pulis comes in. In a subsequent conversation between Moody and Barron, the Cardiff director was apparently overheard saying that he was 'under pressure from Pulis' to obtain the information. After this, more and more people continue to get sucked in, with Bolton boss Dougie Freedman and Cardiff player Aron Gunnarsson also playing bit-parts. Pulis has also been accused of referencing the incident in a chat between the two managers after the game, putting ever more pressure on the ex-Stoke man's shoulders.

In my opinion, there are two options over this case. Either there are too many coincidences to clear Crystal Palace and Pulis, implying that Crystal Palace could be in very serious breach of some of the FA's most important rules. However, the second option, which panders to my more cynical part, thinks that there are too many coincidences to be believable as guilt. Surely no-one can be as stupid as Cardiff are alleging, which implies an act of desperation from the Bluebirds' hierarchy to try and drag themselves out of the predicament they find themselves in.

While this latter option may seem unlikely, it is possible. As I stated, Moody discussing his scheme loudly enough to be overheard is about as idiotic as Al Qaeda making plans for their next attack in front of CCTV cameras or US presidents talking about phone tapping in a recorded conversation (that last one may not be such a good example...). Nevertheless, if we are expected to believe that this was Moody's first dip into the ocean of footballing espionage, mid-way through a season where his side were on a distinct upturn and heading away from danger, along with making several high profile and idiotic mistakes in the process, I'm not really buying it. If Moody has been doing this, he has probably been doing it for some time, which means he should be much better at covering his back than the evidence presented by Cardiff suggests.

Not that I am condoning this sort of practice. If it does occur, which I have little reason to doubt that it does, it is despicable, and brings the sport into disrepute. However, despite the old saying of 'never underestimate the stupidity of criminals', these are not stupid people being caught stealing DVDs from a shop. These are highly educated professionals, and one would expect that they would put considerably more time into the planning and execution of these actions than the allegations suggest.

However, one piece of evidence does appear particularly damning. Should it exist, the text message with the exact Cardiff first 11, which included three changes from the Bluebirds side that faced West Brom the week before, suggests that a real and genuine attempt has been made to obtain the information. I wouldn't be at all surprised to find that this text message is real, and that someone tried to get hold of it, but to hear about all these shady but appallingly insecure meetings makes the story less believable to me.

Despite being a City fan, I have always found Ole Gunnar Solskjaer to be a genuine bloke, and my cynical explanation is not in keeping with his character. While this makes me doubt myself, from what I have heard, Vincent Tan's character is not so squeaky clean. The way that he conducts business, particularly the sacking of Malky Mackay, has been wrong, and it would not surprise me to find that he has been responsible for the 'sexing-up' of these allegations, in order to ensure that his side remains a Premier League club (and earns a rather hefty paycheck at the end of it!). Again, I must stress these are not direct allegations (before I get a chunky lawsuit!). I would rather be painted as a fantasist and a conspiracy theorist - I am merely trying to point out a) alternative explanations and b) demonstrate the cynical way my brain works.

So does James Bond wear a baseball cap? I don't know. I have no doubt that this story will run and run for months, tainting an otherwise brilliant season. It is a practice that should never occur, and if Palace are proven to be guilty, I would want to see them punished in the highest regard. If they have been the victims of a set up, however, I would expect Cardiff to receive a correspondingly high punishment.

Tactics Talk: Chelsea v Sunderland

Lineups:

Chelsea (4-2-3-1): Schwarzer, Azpilicueta, Cahill, Terry, Ivanovic, Ramires, Matic, Salah, Willian, Oscar, Eto'o

Sunderland (4-1-4-1): Mannone, Alonso, Brown, O'Shea, Vergini, Cattermole, Borini, Colback, Larsson, Johnson, Wickham

This game had enormous implications for both the top and bottom, and as a result, both sides put out strong sides. Despite Chelsea in action in mid-week against Atletico Madrid in the Champions League sem-finals, Jose Mourinho went with as positive a team as was available to him. With Eden Hazard still unavailable due to injury, Chelsea would be relying primarily on Oscar for creativity, with Salah and Willian applying pace out wide and on the break. The only other big omission was the lack of Petr Cech due to an unexplained illness. Thankfully for Chelsea, he is not expected to be out for the big European tie.

Sunderland, on the other hand, knew what their task was, having performed it so admirably at the Etihad Stadium just a few days ago. Holding Manchester City to a 2-2 draw in an absorbing encounter, similar tactics would need to be employed for Sunderland to get anything. And they needed something. With just a handful of games remaining, Sunderland's only chance to avoid the drop is in taking points from games they have no right to earn them in, and Wednesday's draw illustrated this. As a result, Gus Poyet began with the same team that started that tie, hoping for a similar response.

As you may have seen on Twitter, I am adding a new portion into these posts. As I tried, and failed to look at how FIFA would predict the Premier League, I will be using Twitter to provide commentary, and where possible, video footage, of FIFA simulations of games my Tactic Talk posts cover. For those of you that did not see the live feed before the match, Chelsea began the game strongly, hitting the post from their first attack. They dominated possession for the entirety of the first half, but found it hard to break down a stubborn Sunderland back line, with Mohamed Salah among those to go close. Just as it seemed as though Sunderland would make it to the break unscathed, Chelsea struck. On 37 minutes, a snapshot from Willian on the edge of the area was only parried by Mannone into the path of Nemanja Matic, who slid the rebound into the back of the net. More Chelsea pressure before the half time whistle led to nothing, and Sunderland went off having had a single shot and just 39% of possession.

The second half started in similar fashion, with Chelsea dominating the possession. Despite this, some excellent Sunderland defending prevented the Blues adding to their lead. With Chelsea's best chance coming from a set piece, with John Terry nodding wide from 6 yards, it seemed only a matter of time before they would strike. However, despite their dominance, Chelsea were hit with a sucker punch on 78 minutes. Having had very little in the way of presentable opportunities, a flowing move saw Borini slide a ball back from the edge of the penalty area for Marcos Alonso to rifle home the equaliser. Despite mounting Chelsea pressure in the final ten, Sunderland refused to cave, gaining them what would be a valuable point should it happen in reality.

In all honesty, I expected the FIFA simulation to be way off reality, with Chelsea seemingly able to walk over teams at Stamford Bridge. FIFA doesn't take into account the momentum that Chelsea have at home versus other teams, nor does it think about Mourinho's incredible 76-game unbeaten run at the Bridge. However, the opening ten minutes went down similarly to the simulation, with Chelsea having almost 70% possession as they pushed Sunderland back to the edge of their own area in the early going. Like the simulation, they struggled to break down the Black Cats' resilient defence. That was until they whipped a corner into the Sunderland box. The Black Cats have conceded 16 of their 56 goals from set pieces, and amidst the chaotic marking, Samuel Eto'o reacted quickly to volley the opener beyond Mannone. With the dominance of the Blues, I was confident that they would go on and win the game comfortably from here.

However, the reaction from Sunderland was almost instant, and like Chelsea, they took advantage of a set piece. Despite the ball being initially cleared, a shot from Marcos Alonso was only parried into the path of Connor Wickham. With the youngster in the form of his life, having scored two against Manchester City in midweek, he had no trouble lifting the ball gently over Mark Schwarzer and into the back of Chelsea's net to stun the home faithful. With the Wearsiders now with momentum, the game turned into an open and entertaining affair. This seemingly would suit Chelsea, but both sides were creating chances, with all wingers wanting to get forward at every opportunities. However, though Chelsea used Willian and Salah in equal measure to put Sunderland to the sword, Adam Johnson on Sunderland's right wing was cutting an anonymous figure, as the Black Cats favoured the creativity of Fabio Borini on the left.

First half hour: For all of Chelsea's possession, they were wasting chances and being kept at arms length by Sunderland. The strugglers had held onto everything the title chasers had to offer, and deservedly levelled.

As time ticked towards half time, Chelsea still could not find a way through, with their most dangerous moments coming off the back of set pieces. Try as they may, Sunderland just could not cope with marking from corners and free kicks, leading to an Eto'o header hitting Mannone and then the bar before dropping into the grateful keeper's gloves. The Cameroon striker was looking an increasingly frustrated figure, with Oscar in particular wasting a bagful of good positions to put the striker in. With Sunderland occasionally threatening, with Adam Johnson spurning the best chance, the game meandered to half time with the scores level, and neither really looking like changing this.

The one moment that could have changed the complexion came five minutes before the break, and epitomised the frustration coursing through the veins of the Chelsea players. Midfielder Ramires, who had been denied by a last ditch Sebastien Larsson header moments before, inexplicably thrust his forearm into the face of the Swedish midfielder. Fortunately for the Brazilian, he avoided a red card, however I would not be surprised to find that he is retrospectively banned for that incident.

The second half began as the first ended, with Chelsea dominating possession but lacking the cutting edge to find the second goal. Sunderland remained dangerous on the counter, with Borini continuing to pull the strings and Wickham putting in a strong centre forward's performance, but their attacks were becoming fewer and their midfield was beginning to slip back towards the defence. But their defence remained strong, with little in the way of chances conceded.

Second half hour: Still nothing to choose between the two sides, and it may take a bit of Jose Mourinho mastery or a horrendous mistake to choose between them. Neither could afford to lose, but a draw would not help either.

By the hour mark, Mourinho had seen enough, bringing in-form Demba Ba on for the ineffective and wasteful Oscar and Andre Schurrle on for Mohamed Salah in a like-for-like swap. Sunderland did made like-for-like swaps of their own, with Jozy Altidore and Emmanuele Giaccherini brought on for Wickham and the anonymous Johnson. With these changes, Chelsea upped the tempo. As a result, they began carving out chances as Sunderland's defence strained to cope. Demba Ba was the most wasteful, slipping at the critical moment after a cut-back. How critical that miss would prove to be.

With just ten minutes to go, a mistake from Cesar Azpilicueta proved critical. With Jozy Altidore bearing down on goal, the Spaniard slid in to try and get the ball out for a corner. Unfortunately for Chelsea, his clumsy challenge, whether contact or not, led the referee's assistant to put his flag across his chest and signalled a penalty. It was then left to Fabio Borini, the on loan Liverpool striker, to slide the ball past Schwarzer to give Sunderland the most unlikely of leads, especially given what happened in Manchester just a few days earlier.

And after the goal, the bombardment began. Cross after cross flew into the Sunderland box, with Chelsea desperately seeking an equaliser. But nothing would work, and the Black Cats would hold on for a historic victory, ending the 76-game winning streak of Mourinho in the process. An incredible feat, and one that may have great ramifications at both ends of the Premier League. Sunderland will go into their next game at home to Cardiff having taken four points from two of the best teams in the country on their own patch, while Chelsea slip further away from Liverpool at the top. I think this result kills their title ambitions, as even a win against the Reds will not suffice any more. In one of the most topsy-turvy seasons in history, this was another incredible twist, and one that will live long in the memory of Sunderland fans. Is the great escape on?

Domenicali Resigns: Just What Is Going On At Ferrari?

He was a man synonymous with success. Behind the headlines of the Golden Generation at Ferrari alongside Ross Brawn, Jean Todt and Michael Schumacher, Stefano Domenicali played a central role in the success of Ferrari during his 23 years. Yesterday's news of his resignation comes as a great shock to me considering his past glories, but simply goes to show that sport is fickle and nothing lasts forever. Cliche, I know, but true.

Domenicali is the definition of a one-team man, spending his entire career to this point at Scuderia. Coming in during a period of Williams and McLaren dominance, his meteoric rise saw him become team manager by 1996 - just as the Schumacher era began. Though he did not earn his first championship until 1999, good things come to those who wait. Was the following 10 years merely a coincidence? No. Though it cannot be entirely attributed to him, Domenicali had plenty to do with the team's six-year run of championships from 1999-2004, ending with one of the most dominant Constructors victories in recent memory. After a couple of years underperforming as the rules changed considerably (sound familiar?), Ferrari and Domenicali were back to winning ways in 2007.

Now as I have said, I do not believe this is entirely down to him, but it is either a real coincidence that Domenicali was made team principle after 2007's return to victory, or he deserved recognition for his efforts. I know which I believe, and this argument is strengthened by Ferrari's continued success the following year. Though they failed to claim the drivers' title (Hamilton's final corner in Brazil put paid to that), they successfully retained the constructors'. However, sadly, that was the last time we have seen the Prancing Horse at the pinnacle of motor racing, as the sport has recently been dominated by another German.

However, Ferrari's 5 years without success does not tell the whole story. While the record books would suggest that the great team were in the wilderness, lagging behind their rivals and licking their wounds, it is far from the truth. In almost every season, Ferrari have been the side that have been challenging the eventual winners for the title. In some cases, entirely against the odds. The job done by Domenicali in 2011, where Ferrari looked entirely out of their depth, kept them in the title hunt, and led him to being put forward as one of Top Gear Magazine's 'Men of the Year'. Whilst again it is unfair to put the credit entirely in his lap (Fernando Alonso was absolutely incredible that year), it nevertheless demonstrates the stupendous job done by him.

So why now? Beginning with the timing of his departure, I am perplexed. His statement to the press after the announcement of his resignation talked of 'shaking things up'. This will certainly have that effect - and I would never imagine it would be a positive one. As football teams have learned and can attest to, for every Tony Pulis, there are one thousand Rene Meulensteens. More often than not, a change mid-season will end catastrophically. With such a big team like Ferrari, who have already demonstrated their lack of patience with underperforming, the next individual to take the job has the ultimate in poisoned chalices.

As for the reason for his departure, we can all make guesses. To say the statement was thinly veiled is almost a lie; it was practically uncovered. In my opinion, Domenicali jumped before he was pushed, and for what appears a ridiculous reason at a ridiculous time of the season. The next person to come in will take time to adjust to the changing demands of their new role, and I expect to see Ferrari's performances continue to dip. Whether the likes of Luca di Montezemelo can put up with that for much longer remains to be seen.

Bahrain GP 2014: Well, At Least We Saw Some Racing...

One year on, and I'm still blogging! After my review of last year's controversial Bahrain Grand Prix kicked off my blogging bug, I have covered the majority of the major sporting events in the last 12 months, and I am massively looking forward to more posts in the future: the Premier League race and the World Cup to name just a couple. This F1 season has begun ominously for the rest of the pack, with Mercedes dominating the open races of the season. Major changes to the regulations have beset the majority of teams with considerable issues, putting world champion Sebastian Vettel and Red Bull on the back foot.

The decision was made at the beginning of the season to make Bahrain another dusk race, to follow the successes of the Abu Dhabi and the Singapore Grand Prix. Whilst I am not necessarily a fan of the night races, as I do not believe that we need to challenge the drivers with unnecessary weather conditions and add danger (though they do make it easier at times for European audiences), it does add another intrigue for Bernie Ecclestone and perhaps levels the playing field a touch. I would be wary of adding new 'unpredictable' weather conditions (such as the frankly ridiculous idea to create fake rain) to any more races, as I am a fan of seeing what the weather throws at you and how you adapt, and that means starting races in the day.

However, news this week overshadowed the importance of the race. With seven-time world champion Michael Schumacher still in his medically-induced coma in Switzerland after his tragic accident on the ski slopes, the news that he is having moments of consciousness comes as a massive relief to Formula 1 fans worldwide. We can only hope that the German continues to see recovery, and we get to see the great man on the track very soon. A controversial but brilliant driver, competitive to the last, we all know Schumacher is a fighter, and it great news that he is showing signs of recovery.

With every car having the #keepfightingMichael emblazoned across it, qualifying began with Mercedes once again the dominant force. With the German manufacturer and the Red Bulls seemingly happy to get through Q1 on the harder tyre, it offered an unusual name the chance to top the initial leaderboard. The honour fell to Force India driver Nico Hulkenberg, who had been unfortunate not to receive a move to a bigger team in the winter break. With the Indian team seeing positive steps, it was almost the opposite for Lotus. The team that won two of the Grand Prix last season has been struggling with the rule change, and have failed to get out of Q1 in each of the two previous races. In Bahrain, their two drivers, Romain Grosjean and Pastor Maldonado, found themselves fighting between them for a place in Q2. This time it was Grosjean who came out on top, beating Maldonado's time by 0.009 of a second. This was despite the interference of Sauber's Adrian Sutil, who clearly blocked the Frenchman off during a lap. This costed the Sauber driver 2 penalty points on his license, with the Sauber man warned about his future conduct.

Q2 saw a complete turnaround of fortunes. Sadly, whilst Mercedes continued their dominance, finishing a second ahead of the pack, Hulkenberg's Force India, who had topped the board in Q1, could not manage to get himself into the final session. Even more shockingly, neither did Sebastian Vettel. The world champion, having not missed out since Spa in 2011 before this season, has now failed to qualify in two of the three races this year, demonstrating the enormous swing away from Red Bull.

The final session of qualifying saw a frenetic opening period, as the battle for pole once again surrounded the two Mercedes teammates. Despite Lewis Hamilton being the one that was largely considered to be the faster of the pair throughout the weekend, it was Nico Rosberg that managed to get himself in front of the Briton in the first run, bettering his team mate's trial by 0.3 seconds. The second runs for both were considerably slower, with Lewis making a huge error at turn one, ruining his chance of pole. However, with the rest of the pack so far behind, no-one could take advantage of this slip. The only surprise of the session was the brilliant effort of Daniel Ricciardo to get himself into third. Though the Aussie would suffer a 10 place grid penalty for a misdemenour in the previous race, it was nevertheless a statement of intent to his more illustrious team mate.

With the race all about the two Mercedes, it came as little surprise to see the pair turning their cars towards one another off the line, indicating that the pair would ready for the fight, and that Mercedes were more than willing to let their drivers race. Off the line, there seemed no difference between the pair, but it was Hamilton that had the better second phase of the start, getting down the inside of Rosberg at turn 1. However, the German did not give up, fighting Lewis all the way up to turns 3 and 4, but just could not make it past. Further back, contact between Raikkonen and Magnusson for the second race running left the Ferrari driver fuming, and his mood would not have been helped by the fact that his car had no performance. Neither Ferrari could live with the pace of the Force India or Williams cars, with Fernando Alonso being passed by Perez on lap 6.

As the pair of Mercedes flew away from the pack, it was not the same story as Malaysia. Hamilton could not break the attentions of Rosberg, though he had managed to escape the DRS zone. This would continue to play a key theme throughout. After his horrendous qualifying session, Sebastian Vettel had not made up the places that many would have expected, though it is important to note that he, unlike the rest of the field, started on the harder tyre. As a result, Vettel was actually doing well to stay on the back of the group in front. The race for third was quickly becoming the most interesting, with the Force Indias and the Williams both seemingly having the opportunity to grab it. Ferrari and McLaren could also harbour outside aspirations of the podium, but they would need to perform better. In that race, it was Force India who grabbed the initiative, with Sergio Perez overtaking Felipe Massa for 3rd on lap 12.

Ferrari's struggles were demonstrated just one lap later, when Alonso became the first of the front runners to pit. However, this strangely aided the Spaniard, giving them the undercut that we have already seen be effective in the last two races. Kimi Raikkonen, after his first stop, began setting fastest laps, however, that new found speed was short lived. Once all of the first stops had been completed, the Ferraris found themselves on older and slower tyres than the rest of the pack. They quickly became mobile chicanes for the other top teams, with the Williams and the Force Indias passing them.

However, this was not the only battle, as the race for the lead began to hot up once more. With the stops coming up, Rosberg managed to close the gap to his team mate to just a few tenths. Another wheel to wheel battle insued, with the German managing to get past Hamilton. The Brit, knowing that he needed to be in the lead to get the first choice on stops, and he nipped back in front at turn 4, before grabbing the initiative and diving into the pit lane. Interestingly, the pair opted for different tyres, with Hamilton choosing to continue on the option tyre whilst Rosberg went for the harder prime. As we had seen throughout, Hamilton, due to the fact that he pitted earlier, managed to stretch his advantage to 3 seconds by the time Rosberg emerged two laps later. By this point, the race saw 2 Mercedes followed by 2 Force Indias and 2 Williams, all 6 cars powered by Mercedes power systems.

The battle for third continued to hot up, as the Williams chose to use a different strategy to their rivals. Unlike those around them, Bottas and Massa used a three stop strategy, seemingly putting them out of the race for 3rd, and favouring the resurgent Force Indias. Daniel Ricciardo, who had been toiling in anonymity for the majority of the race, beginning in 13th, had found some pace, managing to get his way into the lower end of the points by passing Kimi Raikkonen. With Hamilton pulling away from Nico Rosberg on his quicker tyres (though not as quickly as initially expected), his chances of winning were dealt a hammer blow. Pastor Maldonado, having emerged from the pit lane, seemingly failed to judge the speed difference between himself and Esteban Gutierrez. As a result, the collision ended up flipping the Sauber, leaving debris littering the track and bringing out the safety car.

With both Hamilton and Rosberg pitting, the Briton's 9.5 second lead had been eradicated, and he had to survive the remainder of the race on the slower tyres. A mean feat even if facing a slower car, but against the Mercedes seemed impossible. The crash had benefitted the Red Bulls and Jenson Button's McLaren, who had managed to jump the three stopping Williams drivers. However, Sebastian Vettel was instructed by his engineer that the Williams' newer and quicker tyres meant that they would come under threat later in the race. The final few laps of the race saw two enormous battles, with the lead taking the majority of air time, whilst the battle between the Force India driver and Daniel Ricciardo for the final podium was equally as interesting.

From the restart, the Mercedes flew away from the rest, opening up a 10 second gap within just a few laps, demonstrating their dominance over the rest. However, a furious battle continued to rage between the pair, with Rosberg making a number of lunges down the inside into turn 1. However, no matter how hard he tried, he simply could not keep his nose in front of his team mate. On several occasions, the Briton had to get aggressive in his defence, forcing his team mate off the circuit in an attempt to keep his place. And keep it he did, beginning to slowly but surely ease away from Rosberg as his tyres began to lose their edge. This led the cameras to switch their attention to battle for 3rd, as Hamilton seemed to have the race under control going into the final few laps.

As Jenson Button's McLaren fell off completely, dropping behind both Willams, Red Bulls and Ferraris, the battle continued between the two Force Indias for the final podium, with Daniel Ricciardo reeling the pair in quickly. Sergio Perez, who has had to play second fiddle to Hulkenberg for the majority of the first few races, finally got his chance to shine, holding on to his first podium for the team ahead of his team mate, and slowly edged his way away. This meant that Hulkenberg fell back into the clutches of Daniel Ricciardo, with the Australian managing to get himself into a remarkable fourth. But there were not enough laps left to pull off a podium. Another nice moment for the Aussie will have been the overtake he pulled on Vettel (not the one that was due to team orders) as he showed the world champion that he is not there simply to make up the numbers.

But the day, as has been the case at every race so far, belonged to Mercedes. As the cars get more reliable, we will see this kind of thing continue to happen, with the Silver Arrows seemingly having by far the superior package. Unless we see a huge swing in fortune, I fear more races where the battle for third is the most interesting spectacle. However, at least the racing between the pair, and the fact that Mercedes have said they will not stop this with team orders, means that we may have something interesting to watch up front.

Not as controversial as a year ago, nor (arguably) as interesting a race, but we are ushering a new era of Formula 1. Love it or loathe it, it seems as though it is here to stay, so we had all better get used to it, and hope that another team can develop their car throughout the season!